China sends warplanes into Taiwan’s defensive airspace: A prelude to war?
WASHINGTON: According to reports, Taiwan reports that at least 77 Chinese military aircraft passed through their air defense identification zone (ADIZ). This happening over two days in early October. The incursions, with 38 aircraft on one day and 39 on the other, serve as the largest invasion recorded by Taiwan since they’ve been publicly reporting China’s penetration of their ADIZ in 2020.
Does this mean war is imminent?
The first incursion consisted of two waves
First, with 25 aircraft breaching the southwestern corner of the ADIZ during the daytime, and an additional 13 penetrating near the same area of the ADIZ later that same evening.
The Taiwan Defense Ministry reports the daytime incursion consisted of 18 J-16 fighters, four Su-30 fighters/bombers, two H-6 bombers, and one Y-8 anti-submarine warfare aircraft. Evening incursion of 13 aircraft consisted of ten-J-16s, two H-6s and one KJ-500 airborne early warning aircraft.
The next day, October 2nd, China sent more aircraft into Taiwan’s ADIZ, with two waves of aircraft penetrating the airspace, totaling 39 planes. The first wave consisted of 20 planes, which included 14 J-16 fighter jets, four Su-30 fighter/bombers, and two Y-8 anti-submarine warning aircraft.
Does this mean war is coming?
Looking through intelligence reports around the globe we see this happening elsewhere on a smaller scale.
Alaska has seen a huge increase of Russian fighters and bombers penetrating America’s ADIZ in that region.
This has been going on ever since the Cold War began shortly after WWII. The major purpose of the incursions is to gain information about our readiness status. They learn how fast we respond, what radio and microwave frequencies we use for command and control. They note our reaction time, and our willingness to confront the threat.
These incursions stopped after the fall of the Soviet Union. However, they have begun again in the past few years as tensions have risen between the Russian Federation and the United States. Especially since the false claims of Russian involvement in the 2016 elections strained relations to the maximum.
Under Biden, things have gone from bad to worse
The recent increase of Russian military actions on America’s borders – from Alaska to Hawaii, the Atlantic and Artic Oceans, highlights increasing strain between our two nations. Democrat actions have led us into a new mini cold war with Russia.
The Chinese People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) is learning the very same things as Taiwan’s Air Force. They are also sending a message that they are strong and willing to confront Taiwan. However, it does not mean that war is imminent.
Derek Grossman, a senior defense analyst at the RAND Corporation, among other analysts, believes that China penetrating Taiwan’s ADIZ serves numerous purposes.
A display of force being number one, meant to intimidate and terrorize Taiwan’s citizens. Secondly, by providing the Chinese military practical training in the event there’s ever conflict with Taiwan, according to a report in Law Enforcement Today.
However, despite these multiple incursions, Grossman is skeptical on whether it would genuinely ever evolve into armed conflict:
“I don’t think there is a high or even medium probability of a Chinese attack or invasion of Taiwan. The PLA still has many vulnerabilities, especially when faced with the near-certain intervention of the United States with a high probability of Japanese and Australian support. China understands the severe downsides of a failed attack or invasion of Taiwan and will probably continue to bide its time.”
Yoshiyuki Ogasawara, a professor at Tokyo University of Foreign Studies presented another theory for these incursions that have been ongoing since 2020 in an article he penned last December for The Diplomat.
Ogasawara suspects that, based upon the flight patterns by the PLAAF during these breaches of Taiwan’s ADIZ, China may be more interested in Pratas Island, located at the top of the South China Sea. The island doesn’t have any permanent residents, but does host a small Taiwanese military contingent along with an airstrip:
“China could take control of the Pratas Islands whenever Chinese President Xi Jinping decides… The islands are a potential flashpoint that now need to come to the attention of the US, Japan and other democratic countries.”
Why would China believe that America and our allies in the area would go to war over Taiwan?
There is a very complicated answer to that question; however, the simple answer will suffice. Because Taiwan possesses chip technology that no one else in the world has. That is why China wants to take control of the once independent island of Formosa and make it a part of Communist China.
China wants access to that chip technology to use in their military.
So far Taiwan only sells it to the United States and our allies for use in our weapons. And they keep it a secret how it works, even from America. That is why China does not copy the chip, because Taiwan knows how to keep a secret, and knows that the U.S. does not.
That is the reason that the United States might go to war with China to protect our military preparedness; even with Ole Joe in charge. If Kamala takes his place, she might not go to war. But that is a discussion for a later time.
In the meantime, Chinese President, Xi Jinping, has instructed the PLA to heighten its readiness and prepare for warfighting under ‘realistic fighting conditions.’
Hence, it is relatively unsurprising that the PLA continues to fly into Taiwan’s ADIZ as part of realistic training and preparation for armed conflict. Something that Xi does not rule out.
So the possibility of China taking Taiwan by force is real. But the idea from professor Yoshiyuki Ogasawara is something else to ponder. Would America and our allies go to war over an uninhabited island?
Probably not. There is precedent for this in the failure of America to do anything about the manmade islands that China built in the South China Sea. Even though at least one island has been militarized, no nation has done anything to stop China, thereby giving tacit approval.
Because of this Xi may believe that if he invades the Pratas Islands that he can gain a military position to further put pressure on Taiwan. And not take the risk of war with America and our allies. This is a win for Xi, and a second win because he saves face by having done something to quell his military of their desire to take action.
There is one more consideration to take into account on the question of America going to war with China over Taiwan.
That is the unanswered question of Biden’s corruption. We know that through his son Hunter, he has accepted huge sums of money from China. But we do not know exactly what he will do to pay China back for those funds.
As far as we know, the fix is already in. China has a clear hand to invade whatever island they want without fear of American reprisals. This is what you get when a president is elected who is not only corrupt but as openly corrupt as Joe.
None of the standards of government apply to this administration.
The Chi-coms have little worry that we will retaliate against them for invading Taiwan. Or anything else they may choose to do. That is why they prepaid for Biden’s services. Now it is time for him to earn the fortune they gave to the doddering, demented, frail old man. American’s will all pay the Biden debt.
You don’t need nukes to bring the U.S. down. Just a fake president who’s on China’s payroll.
About the author:
Political Staff Writer Joseph Ragonese is a veteran of the United States Air Force, a retired police officer, has a degree in Criminal Justice, a businessman, journalist, editor, publisher, and fiction author. His last book, “The Sword of Mohammad,” can be purchased at Amazon.com in paperback or kindle edition.
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