Prediction, keys to the fight: Mayweather vs. Maidana

Floyd Mayweather and Marcos Maidana at their weigh-in Friday.
Floyd Mayweather and Marcos Maidana at their weigh-in Friday. Photo: Tom Casino, Showtime

SAN DIEGO, May 3, 2014 – “The Moment” is hours away for Floyd Mayweather and Marcos Maidana. Their welterweight championship fight will be televised by Showtime as a pay-per-view event. Communities Digital News will host a live online chat starting with the televised undercards at 9 p.m. ET.

Mayweather is overwhelmingly favored to win this fight, it’s no secret. Does the Argentinean fighter nicknamed “El Chino” have any chance to defeat Mayweather? There is always a chance, but it’s a slim one.

The Best Offense is a Good Defense: The quote “The best defense is a good offense” is often said with football or basketball in mind. But it was originally said by heavyweight prizefighter Jack Dempsey. Floyd Mayweather has turned this quote upside down to great success. In Mayweather’s case, the best offense is a good defense. No one has found a way to get inside Mayweather’s legendary defense. He presents the smallest possible target. He uses speed and impressive reflexes to stay out of the way of his opponent’s punches.

It doesn’t matter how hard you punch if you can’t hit the target. Maidana will have the same problem every other fighter does in landing punches on Mayweather.

Marcos Maidana had Adrien Broner in big trouble, but could not finish him off. Photo: Courtesy Showtime
Marcos Maidana had Adrien Broner in big trouble, but could not finish him off. Photo: Courtesy Showtime

Finish What You Started: Marcos Maidana won the opportunity to fight Floyd Mayweather with his upset defeat of Adrien Broner in December. Maidana knocked Broner down twice in the fight, once in the second round and again in the eighth round, the first time in Broner’s professional career that he hit the canvas. But Maidana could not finish Broner off.

Maidana threw nearly 1,000 punches in the 12 round fight. It seemingly left him too gassed to press Broner after he hit pay dirt. Maidana says he’s going to start more cautiously against Mayweather. But he can’t play it safe or let minutes tick by without aggressively looking for opportunities to get past Mayweather’s defenses.

Conditioned to Win: Maidana came out very quickly in the first few rounds of the fight with Broner, not his usual approach. It threw Broner off and it worked. But it tired him out and his punch output slowed way down during the last rounds of the fight.

Maidana will need to spend a lot of energy trying to score on Mayweather. Too much energy, in my opinion. Mayweather is always in superb condition and he can just wait out Maidana. Despite Mayweather being seven years older than Maidana at age 37, it matters not.

Floyd Mayweather's last knockout came against Victor Ortiz in 2011.
Floyd Mayweather’s last knockout came against Victor Ortiz in 2011. Photo: Mayweather Promotions


My prediction: This fight will go the distance. There won’t be a knockout. Maidana won’t land enough punches on Mayweather to get the job done. Mayweather hasn’t scored a real knockout since Ricky Hatton in 2007. (Yes, there was the KO of Victor Ortiz in 2011, but Ortiz made himself a sitting duck with a foolish mistake). Maidana is capable of scoring a knockout if he lands the perfect punch, but therein lies the problem for Maidana.

Mayweather will win this fight by unanimous decision. He is a tactical genius and no one is more elusive in the ring. But make no mistake, Mayweather has an offense and he hits hard when he goes after his target. He will hit Maidana with more accuracy and a better connect percentage rate as he does with all his opponents.

Mayweather will do enough damage to establish his supremacy. He won’t be able to knock out the tough Argentinean, but he won’t give him any chance to land a winning punch.

Communities Digital News will bring you all the action tonight in Live Online Chat starting with the televised undercard fights at 9 p.m. ET. We provide blow by blow live commentary and real-time photos and invite you to share your reaction to all the action. See you ringside.

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