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We know Biden stole the Presidential election, the numbers don’t add up

Written By | Jan 26, 2021
Fraud, Ballot, Election, 2020, biden, Trump

COLORADO SPRINGS: Late in the evening of November 3, 2020, it looked as though President Donald Trump was cruising to reelection. He was ahead in all the so-called swing states and had won Ohio and Florida—two states that historically a Republican can’t win an election without. President Trump secured 17 of the 18 Bellwether counties.  Betting odds were in his favor. People went to bed assured that the president had won a second term.

And, in fact, he did.

“Those who vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything.” – Joseph Stalin

While there are several variations of this sentiment and plenty of “fact-checkers”, don’t be fooled. Whether Stalin said exactly those words or not, the sentiment applies. Waking on November 4th, we learned that in the middle of the night vote counting had been suspended in a number of swing states. At the same time.  President Trump’s lead started to diminish. Slowly it turned the other way and he lost in all of those states:

Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia. We saw in real-time on CNN and FOX news that the vote totals switched – from a decisive win for President Trump, the votes magically switched to Biden.

On election night Biden always had the lead in electoral votes according to the Main Stream Media

All the major news networks were the same—as opposed to 2016, where different channels called different states for Trump. This time they reported results in lockstep. Regardless of percent reporting, it seemed as though the networks wouldn’t give Trump a state until they gave Biden one.

How could this be? It was reminiscent of the Coleman-Franken Minnesota senate race in 2010. (Al Franken May Have Won His Senate Seat Through Voter Fraud)

Every recount found more Franken ballots until he finally won. It was as if the counting wouldn’t stop until he did.

Later it was discovered that there were more illegal felon ballots than the margin of victory. But no matter: the election was over. In the undisputed words of former Senator Harry Reid, “It worked, didn’t it?”

But is this proof that the presidential election was stolen? No, by itself it is not.

Let’s examine some numbers. We start with the easy math.

According to county-level analysis done by Ballotpedia, there are 206 so-called pivot counties that Barack Obama won in 2008 and 2012 and that Donald Trump won in 2016. Of those counties, Trump won 181 of them in 2020 and Biden 25. The ones Biden won were more populous and more urban. Keep that in mind because throughout the country we see the same rural-urban divide.

Now, look at the margins of victory:

Source: Ballotpedia

Where Trump won, he won big—an average of 14 points. Where Biden won, he squeaked by with a little over 3 points.

In the end, it doesn’t matter how much you win by, only that you win. Note also that if we look at the historical record of those counties, Obama won by less in 2012 than in 2008 and Trump’s average is an almost 20% flip from 2012.

Again only 25 of those counties flipped back in 2020 and not by very much. (Revenge of the Nerds: Statistical experts prove Biden loss, Trump win)

How about the popular vote?

Although it does not determine the election outcome, it is interesting to view overall and state by state. According to the Cook Political Report, Biden got over 81 million votes against Trump’s 74 million. In 15 key battleground states, Trump’s share of the vote was 50.1% while Biden’s was 48.4%! Overall, Biden’s vote increase was only 2.4% over 2016 in those states.

That’s not a big shift. But it doesn’t need to be a big shift if it is the right places.

If you take the average of the vote count percent state-by-state across all 50 states for Biden the number is 48.2%; the average for Trump is 49.6%. But again, averages don’t mean much if you don’t get the right votes in the right places.

Let’s look at the vote ethnically.

In 2106 Trump won 18% of Latino voters; in 2020 27%.

According the UK’s The Guardian,

Let’s start with gender: across racial and ethnic groups, women shifted towards Trump this cycle. In the last election, Trump won white women by a margin of 9 percentage points. This year, he won by 11 percentage points. In 2016, Democrats won Hispanic and Latina women by 44 percentage points; in 2020 they won by 39. Last cycle, Democrats won black women by 90 percentage points. This year, by 81 points. That is, in a year when a black woman was on a major party ticket for the first time in US history, the margin between Democrats and Republicans among black women shifted 9 percentage points in the other direction – towards Trump. (emphasis mine)

Let’s summarize so far:

  • Trump gains more votes in 2020 than he had in 2016
  • Trump makes gains in all ethnic populations—sometimes dramatically
  • As a general observation, when Trump wins a state, he wins big. When he loses, he loses small. (The big exception is the District of Columbia, which went 96% for Biden.)
Then there’s the polling.

The pollsters told us that the race was close but Biden was always ahead. Yet we saw Trump leading up to five rallies a day drawing tens of thousands of people. Biden mostly sat in the basement. When he did go out, his crowds were a carefully managed few dozen. These same pundits and pollsters tell us enthusiasm counts: Where was the enthusiasm for Biden?

Are we to believe that Trump did better than he did against Hillary in 2016 (winning 74 million votes in 2020 vs. 63 million in 2016) but that Biden outperformed both Obama in 2008 (69 million) and Hillary (65 million) to get all of 81 million? And that for this election people were so charged up by Sleepy Joe that almost 67% of registered voters showed up to vote? In Obama’s election of 2008 only 61% turned out.

All of the above analysis assumes the validity of the accepted and certified ballot numbers. Next time we’ll begin to see how Biden’s numbers were inflated. (The proof of the 2020 Election fraud is easy to see in the numbers)

 

 

 

Al Maurer

Al Maurer is a political scientist and founder of The Voice of Liberty. He writes on topics of limited government and individual rights.