WASHINGTON, DC: A new Pax Americana is emerging on the world stage, where an assertive, confident America is reshaping the nature of the international order. President Trump has changed the power dynamic with every major global adversary around the world, vastly strengthening America’s position, and decimating the economies and future prospects of our most vociferous global opponents, from Russia, to China, to Iran, to Venezuela, to the eviscerated remnants of ISIS.
Next week President Trump meets with North Korea’s Supreme Leader, Kim Jong-un.
Decimating the economies of our adversaries
It’s an untold story, but one of one enormous significance. On trade issues with China. Challenging Russia in Ukraine and Syria. Confronting and weakening Iran on all fronts. And now calling for a restoration of democracy in shattered Venezuela, the reassertion of American influence by President Trump is having a powerful effect.
The weapon of choice is to affect and threaten the internal economies of each nation. Stressing their ability to be malign actors on the regional or world stage. Decimating the value of their currency is a frequent indicator of the effectiveness of Trump’s policies. Especially in Iran.
In spite of the McCarthyite damage the media tries to inflict
Not that you would hear it amongst the cacophony of McCarthyite slurs and fixations on the Mueller inquisition and the Russia Hoax from CNN, MSNBC and the Trump hating mainstream media. Nor would you think it amongst the rubric of lies repeated ad nauseam by these same anti-Trump propaganda mouthpieces that Trump is weakening or destabilizing NATO.
The willingness of the irresponsible media and the deep state to weaken Trump at home and abroad by challenging his credibility as the legitimate President is beyond appalling. It is intentionally damaging. Criminally diabolical. For openly and repeatedly without evidence labeling him a Russian puppet. A stooge of Putin. Its an unprecedented low for the Democrats, the media, and the truth. But there you have it.
Trump has strengthened NATO
Trump has actually strengthened NATO’s posture extensively. He has challenged the Russians aggressively in Ukraine, on the world energy markets, and with targeted sanctions. His jawboning with the allies has brought more the $100 billion dollars more per year to NATO’s coffers.
Trump is willing to criticize allies like Merkel in Germany for creating a refugee problem in the heart of Europe. Meanwhile, Germany contributes far less to defense and NATO than the 4% GDP target promised in the NATO charter. At the same time that she is negotiating to make Germany even more dependent on Russian energy with a new gas pipeline project under the Baltic Sea.
Trump is seeking results and he gets them
Ask the Czechs and the Poles and the Hungarians if they feel safer with Donald Trump as President. Ask the head of the EU or the head of NATO if Trump isn’t serious about changing the status quo for the better. It is Trump’s tough policies that resulted in breakthroughs for an improved trade deal currently in the works with the EU. Its Trump’s determination that has led to greater funding for NATO.
But let’s be certain of one thing. Trump can be unsparing in his criticism, and sharp with his elbows. He also gets results, repeatedly, around the world. He earns the grudging respect of allies and adversaries alike. They ignore him at their peril.
Even unruly would be allies like Turkey have had their economies and their currencies similarly damaged after their own intransigent actions were then punished by American anger at their conduct. The extent to which a nation is a constructive player on the world stage is the extent to which they will prosper or suffer retribution and the economic consequences.
The New Pax Americana: a strategic design for the future
Ally or adversary, the new Pax Americana is that Trump is looking for a fair deal for America and between nations. He is willing to be frank with his allies and deadly effective with his adversaries. Trade is frequently a weapon. Economics is frequently a weapon. Currency is regularly a weapon.
All of it is tied to a strategic design America hasn’t had or seen in a generation or more. An aggressive strategic plan of action to affect events and get results. All of it is geared to make American dominance the decisive factor in world affairs. In the name of international fairness, decency, and order.
China: Trade wars and economic damage
China’s stock market is down 30% since the Trump tariffs were enacted. Growth in the last two quarters has dipped, as has manufacturing in China. The tariffs on steel, aluminum, and other goods are bringing in billions of dollars to the US treasury each month, and China is feeling the effect.
That is why the trade negotiations are now going well.
On the heels of the successful trade negotiations with Mexico and Canada, Trump is on the verge of a significant triumph in his dealings with Xi Jinping. The concessions on opening Chinese markets will be historic. The agreements on intellectual property and forced joint ventures will be essential.
Eliminating the trade deficit with China by 2024
All look to be on track. The goal that Xi is committing to is an elimination of the annual trade imbalance by 2024. Currently, over $500 billion dollars a year, Xi expects to cut that by hundreds of billions of dollars in the first years alone. That is great news for American agriculture and energy exports. It is outstanding news for the American economy. It also a landmark victory and vindication for Donald Trump.
The alternative was the economic ruin of China. They sit on a real estate and development bubble that demands a constantly expanding economy. The trade war with China threatened to derail its growth and Xi Jinping’s legacy in China. Something had to be done.
Building a fair relationship with China
The effects were showing. Their stock market was down 30%. Inventories were piling up. Market share was being lost. There is a deadline in several weeks where tariffs are to be significantly boosted. For China, it wasn’t sustainable. It would lead to calamity.
As for Trump its a matter of establishing a fair reciprocal relationship, functionally and economically. For China its a realization that they had gotten away with murder for decades and there was a new sheriff in town.
A deal had to be made. It’s about to be consummated, and it will be historic. For the Trump hating media, its a great untold story of monumental success they will refuse to acknowledge. Only the American people will give him credit, in 2020.
Beating up the Ruble and the Russian economy
In Russia, which has an economy the size of Italy, the Ruble has lost 30% off its value in the last two years. Sanctions have hit the Russian stock market and economy hard. The Russian market is down significantly. Oil is hovering at around $50 a barrel. That is far less than the $80 a barrel 18 months ago.
This is a major stressor on the Russian economy. Military adventurism in Ukraine and Syria are expensive. At some point, Putin is going to need to reach an accommodation with the West as the US grows stronger, militarily and economically, and his position grows more untenable.
It is said that Russia is largely the gas station of Europe and it is true. In spite of the war in Ukraine, Russia provides 90% of the energy used in Ukraine. They also provide 90% of all the energy used in Poland, Romania, Hungary, and the Czech Republic. They provide 80% of the oil and natural gas used in Germany and France.
Trump is aggressively reshaping the table
It is President Trump that is challenging Russians energy domination of Europe. Trump is establishing a series of liquified natural gas (LNG) facilities for exports of American LNG to Poland and Germany.
A resurgent President Trump is granting weapon systems to Ukraine that Obama blocked for 8 years. Trump is strengthening the NATO presence in Poland and the Czech Republic, and NATO recently inducted Mecadonia as its latest member.
Trump has weakened Putin in Europe, challenged him in Ukraine and Syria, and is seeking to engage him in a fruitful fashion on the world stage. A resurgent non-apologetic America will be at a decisive advantage when those talks occur.
Coordination with Russia over the future of Syria, for one thing, is essential, among numerous other crucial bilateral and multilateral issues that must be addressed. Secretary Pompeo knows this. The deliberate smear campaign of the deep state and the Trump hating media are a deliberate attempt to interfere in that relationship.
Mueller probe is a McCarthyite smear
Unlike Barack Obama who promised “flexibility” or Hillary Clinton, who accepted $145 million dollars from Russian sources and colluded with the Russian Government to produce the Steele dossier, Trump only seeks a better relationship for America and the Russian people.
The ongoing deep state sedition of the Mueller Probe and the open McCarthyite smears by the Democrat Party are attempting to sabotage that relationship. Smearing President Trump with lies on a daily basis as a Russian agent does no service to the American people. It only strengthens the Russians by undermining the American President.
Like Harry Reid during the Iraq war.
Putin is eager to deal with Trump
In spite of two years of this charade, Trump has Russia in an advantageous position, and fruitful talks will eventually emerge as a result of America’s position of strength. Like the Chinese, Putin is eager to make deals with Trump.
Even the latest dispute over medium-range nuclear missiles and the withdrawal of the US from that treaty is an acknowledgment of how the issue had evolved in the wake of Chinese medium-range missiles.
Now Trump is in a position for a new treaty on medium-range missiles that includes China and Russia. Without one he is free to pursue new strategic realities in South Korea and Japan that would threaten both China, Russia, and North Korea. I suspect a three-way deal will be in the works somewhere down the road.
Iran is on the ropes
In Iran, Donald Trump has the government of the country on the ropes. The economy of Iran is in a free fall. The currency has been devalued over 50% after the latest round of sanctions and the withdrawal of the United States from the Iran Nuclear deal. Unrest grips not just Tehran, but Isfahan, and Khorramshahr, and Qom.
Iranian adventurism in Yemen and Syria is proving increasingly untenable. The corrupt Mullah’s grip on the Revolutionary Guards is the only thing holding the country together. Social unrest is widespread. The economy continues to unravel at all levels, and the currency is becoming worthless. How does the government hang on in such conditions?
You can thank Donald Trump for altering the equation and humbling Iran. For turning things around after Obama’s appeasement. They’ve got some big problems at home that aren’t getting any better. They will come to the table at some point and seek a regional deal soon enough. Or face the consequences and retribution of the Iranian people.
The Caliphate has been eliminated
ISIS is destroyed. When Trump became President ISIS controlled one-third of Iraq, and held the large city of Mosul. Now the last ISIS villages are being decimated in a small corner of Syria and the caliphate that Obama said would take generations to defeat is in smoking ruins. So much for generations.
The resultant calamities in Syria will still need to be being managed. Russia, Iran, Turkey, the Kurds, and the United States will still need to reach understandings amongst themselves about the future of Syria. After Obama and Hillary decimated the region, killing millions and sending millions of more refugees swarming towards Europe from Syria to Libya, Trump is tasked with picking up the pieces.
Rather than acquiesce to Iranian hegemony in the Middle East, Trump has partnered with our allies in Israel, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, and Kuwaiti. Obama destabilized Libya and abandoned Egypt to the Muslim Brotherhood. Trump is a staunch ally of Al Sisi in Egypt. Ask the Egyptians, or the Jordanians, or the Saudis, or the Israeli’s if they feel safer with Trump as President. It is not even a contest.
A new day coming for Venezuela
In Venezuela, President Trump has made clear that the axis of socialist totalitarianism is coming to an end. A Venezuelan police state propped up by Cuban forces and Russian mercenaries is increasingly untenable.
Trump explicitly called on Venezuelan Generals to abandon Maduro and allow a transitional government to take hold in a major speech in Miami last week. It was an open signal to the Venezuelan military to defect. Amnesty has been offered. Failure to accept it would be a mistake. Generals who supported Maduro would be held accountable.
Trump gave an amazing speech in Florida, reminiscent of the John Kennedy Cuba Libre’ speech in 1961. He called for an end to socialist governments in Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua. 60 years after the Cuban revolution an American President is finally reasserting the Monroe Doctrine in our hemisphere, but by working with regional democratic governments and the OAS.
The underlying collapse of the Venezuelan economy speaks for itself. The extent too which the corrupt Venezuelan economy underwrote the Cuban and Nicaraguan economy with subsidized oil is substantial. Large shipments of gold out of Venezuela and wire transfers of money to foreign banks have been tracked. International assets have been frozen or seized.
Corruption is endemic. It is a Cuban police state. The need for the ouster of the Maduro regime, as being orchestrated by the Trump administration, is a landmark example of international cooperation among regional democratic governments.
Progress on North Korea is tied to China
In Korea Trump is about to continue the process of normalizing relations with North Korea as part of the process of denuclearization. Here is another Trump triumph that defies all foreign policy precepts. Progress in North Korea is deeply tied to progress with China. As the China trade talks wrap up successfully, expect progress on the North Korean front.
That the summit will be in Hanoi is a symbol of the road ahead for North Korea. A committed foe of the United States can transform into an independent economic powerhouse that doesn’t threaten its neighbors.
The North Korean nuclear program has assured the interim survival of Kim Jung Un. The task is now to make the gradual integration of North Korea into the world economy without conflict. That goal has already made enormous strides.
A new day for Pax Americana, thanks to Trump
But in every case, from China to Russia, Iran, ISIS, Venezuela, and North Korea, the effort has been led by American strength. American resolve. Willingness to challenge norms. Impose tariffs. Threaten fire and fury.
There is no question that a new Pax Americana under a determined Donald Trump is emerging. One that will reshape the coming decades in ways that will benefit the United States and the continuity of a peaceful world order enormously.
Strength and economic growth, combined with a withering ability to inflict damage, especially economic, on the economies and currencies of our adversaries, is one of our greatest strengths.
Trump wields it like a sword, and gets results.
Call it the free market in world affairs. Those who work with the United States, and function within the restraints of normal behaviors, will be rewarded for their willingness to be a part of a greater future for everyone.
Pax Americana indeed.
Lead Image: President Donald J. trump disembarks Marine One on the South Lawn of the White House Friday, Feb. 8, 2019, following his visit to Walter Reed National Military Medical Center in Bethesda, Md.(Official White House Photo by Tia Dufour)