The 2020 Election Polls: Illusion vs reality in America’s presidential race
SAN DIEGO: Various 2020 election polls show Joe Biden a favorite in the most significant presidential election in America’s history. So, why doesn’t it feel like he’s winning? A slew of polls in 2016 had Hillary Clinton the president long before voting day. Proving that polls can create an illusion of winning. Not a prediction. Polls only reveal public opinion, attitudes during the moment their survey is taken.
How can a 77-year old candidate hide in his basement, relegate campaigning to an hour a day, and draw only handfuls of people at rallies be ahead? The reality is there’s no fire in the Biden race. No boat parades, no chants, and no personal charisma evident that would lead to these mysterious leading poll percentages.
It has to boil down to Biden’s illusion that life can be free.
Biden’s free universities, free health care, free food, free housing, free this and that. There is no such thing as a charitable gift. The reality is the American people will pay Biden’s illusions through higher taxes and loss of Constitutional freedoms. Democrats plan to overturn everything America stands for in a fevered quest for control in order to create a one-state, socialist government.
A Biden/Harris voter can count on this.
A socialist revolt is on the ballot, under the layers of that poll question – ‘will you vote for Biden’? Pretty incredulous there are those running prosperous corporations, that will say ‘yes’ to Biden as president. Knowing that it will only be a matter of time before their empires crush under the weight of the Democrat deep state.
Biden’s corporate America will be torn down and rebuilt under the $93 trillion Green New Deal. The illusion is it protects the planet that goes through natural cycles. Guess who pays for the rebuild? The estimated cost per American household is $600,000. The reality is climate will still evolve.
Choose Biden – choose the party of anarchists, activists, socialists.
When polls say Biden is ahead – let it be a warning to those in the dark. The fence-sitters, also known as the undecided voter. Are you willing to pay the price of a Democrat win in Congress or the White House? A Democrat win that will turn your paycheck into a free game for socialism? That will turn your children’s education into a series of ‘anti-America teachings’ where neither God nor the American Flag is allowed?
Do you want healthcare decided by a panel of corrupt politicians and death panels, not doctors? How about living in neighborhoods with uncontrolled looting, violence, murder?
Expect law enforcement to be re-imagined, defunded as claimed by Kamala Harris next in line to replace a compromised Biden. The illusion is that ‘Democrats know what’s best for you’.
Lessons learned by political pollsters and analysts from Trump’s 2016 win.
The reality is Democrats still choke over Hillary Clinton’s 2016 loss. The illusion they live under is that Democrats are bigger, better, smarter than deplorable Trump voters.
The American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) is the nation’s leading organization of survey researchers. In May 2017, AAPOR released a long-awaited report on polling during 2016’s primary and general election campaigns. Courtney Kennedy, Pew Research Center director of survey research, chaired the committee of research analysts.
“The report notes that, while the national polls generally came pretty close to the actual nationwide popular vote (which Clinton won by 2.1 percentage points over Trump), the performance of polls at the state level – where presidential elections actually are decided – was a lot spottier.”
Pew Research Center reveals potential causes for the wildly different outcome than indicated in the 2016 pre-election polls. Note that data is subject to the groups taking polls and their methods. Things to consider about polls in the following AAPOR summarized excerpts:
1. Legitimate change in voter preference the last week before Election Day. National Election Pool’s exit poll showed 20-point swings in favor of Trump among voters making their minds up in the final week.
2. Numerous studies show that people with higher levels of education are more likely to take surveys. Pew Research asks people what their education level is and then employs statistical weighting. For instance, if you had too many college grads in a poll (everyone does) and didn’t weight appropriately, support for Clinton was overestimated.
3. If a huge segment of Trump’s base does not do polls that’s a huge problem for pollsters.
4. Polling resources for news organizations show a decline. Fewer newsgroups do polls, and those that do (particularly local) use very low-cost methodology. State-level polls tend to produce more error than National polls that are better resourced.
5. Polling and prognosticating are two different enterprises. A well-done public opinion survey can tell you what opinion was during the time of an interview but does not speak in a precise way to future behavior.
“A poll is a snapshot in time, not a way of predicting what will happen,” says AAPOR.
Issues evolve during an election. Policies should stay consistent.
“Polls are supposed to answer questions on what motivates voters, why people vote or not vote, how they feel about the policies and the candidates,” states AAPOR’s report.
Certainly, this week’s confirmation hearings of Amy Coney Barrett will reflect in the next day or week’s polls. To date, Joe Biden refuses to make his policy known on ‘packing the court’. He recently reiterated that refusal in Las Vegas, saying voters “don’t deserve” to know his stance on expanding the Supreme Court.
“For years, Joe Biden opposed court-packing while his running mate Kamala Harris suggested that she was “open” to the idea of court-packing…several Democrats are attempting to turn the tables on Republicans by accusing them of “court-packing” by redefining the term as filling judicial vacancies,” reports Fox News.
Chief Justice William Rehnquist once described judicial independence as the “crown jewel of our system of government.”
“That jewel is easy to admire until its results don’t fit your politics. “Court-packing” refers to changing the structure of the judiciary to add judges deemed likely to render favorable decisions,” says Rehnquist.
The reality is predicting what Biden will say or not say next is impossible. He shocks his own party with stated policy blunders. His consummate lies and changing of facts create nothing but an illusion of his fitness to lead. How can one accurately reflect that in a poll?
Still, polling with its flaws is the best available tool for measuring attitudes of the moment. However, the thousands gathering at Trump rallies time after time speak even louder. Vote on November 3rd with a true understanding of who and what you’re voting for.
America can avert the biggest shock wave of its existence with another surprise Trump win, despite polls that say otherwise.
Featured Image: Photo Elise Kay Camp - 2018 - Grab 'Em Polls, CC BY 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=92705160