WASHINGTON, DC: On top of the sensationalism of the ongoing Hunter Biden expose, President Trump is on track to be successfully re-elected on November 3rd. (Emails reveal how Hunter Biden tried to cash in big on behalf of family with Chinese firm) There are a number of specific data-driven factors that add to the aura of momentum growing for a Trump victory. These are outside of and in addition to the traditional political weaknesses of an intellectually diminished and ethically challenged Joe Biden.
#1: 56% of Americans say they are better off now than in 2016
Despite the pandemic and in a barometer question that has been the gold standard since the 1980 Reagan Carter debate. 56% responded to a Gallop survey in September that they were better off in 2020 than in 2016. That is 11% better than any previous survey number in history.
If you remember Ronald Reagan won the 1980 debate and the presidency by asking viewers “Are you better off than when Jimmy Carter became President.” Gallop has asked that question ever since.
Every election is ultimately about the economy. If 56% of Americans feel better off under Donald Trump, then statistically, historically, and logically, he should easily be re-elected.
#2: Trump will get between 20% and 30% of the black vote
President Trump got 8% of the black vote in 2016. Recent surveys have shown his approval level among black Americans as high as 35%. Black support for Trump is growing and undeniable. Twenty=seven percent said they would vote for Trump in a Rasmussen poll.
If Trump got anywhere near those numbers the election would be all over. If Trump gets 20% of the black vote it will be earth-shattering. But don’t forget that black conservative Republicans like Kim Klacik in Baltimore, Joe Collins in Los Angeles, and John James for the US Senate in Michigan are making significant inroads.
They are bringing their constituents to Trump.
#2a – Trump has done more for blacks in 4 years than Joe Biden has done in 40.
From the First Step Act and Prison Reform. Empowerment Zones for black communities. The lowest black unemployment in history. In 2021 Donald Trump offers black families an escape from failing schools by offering Charter schools and school choice. Imagine if every black parent had a $21,000 voucher, the cost per pupil in Los Angeles, that they could apply to any charter schools their child could get into.
Trump is certain to at least double his black support to at least 16%. That will have devastating consequences for the Democrat Party. That is why they are screaming racism. Their base with black Americans is crumbling before their eyes. Trump doesn’t need to win every black vote. He just needs 2 or 3 out of every 10. He will get that in 2020, making his re-election a certainty.
#3: Trump will get 40- 50% of the Hispanic vote.
Like the black vote, Trump is surging with Latino voters in unexpected ways well beyond the Cuban vote in Florida. On matters of law and order and the economy, Hispanics and Latinos track pretty close to white voters in their attitudes. Hispanics had the lowest unemployment rate in history under Trump and sustained economic wage growth and prosperity. In Florida, in public polls, Trump is leading Biden among Hispanics 54 – 46%. That is astounding.
In 2016 Trump got around 32% of the Hispanic vote. If he gets between 40 and 45% of the Latino vote in 2020 then it will make a significant difference in a number of states. Well beyond Florida and Arizona where it may be crucial. There are significant Hispanic voters in Michigan, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and all the swing states.
Trump will get a lot more of them in 2020. Roughly 25% more. 4 out of 10, at least, instead of 3. It will make a crucial difference.
#4: Trump has a ground game. Biden does not.
Donald Trump has a significant ground game/get out the vote operation that combines digital outreach with millions of volunteers. Joe Biden has no ground game in any of the swing states. The Biden campaign has been relying on its digital outreach and TV advertising almost exclusively.
There is a shortage of yard signs. An absence of presence. There are no Biden headquarters. There is no coordinated Democrat “get out the vote” campaign on the ground. Swing state Democrat organizations are panicking. They are trying to fill the gap.
Biden/Harris hold campaign event in Arizona and the news station is shocked no supporters showed up 😭😂🤣 pic.twitter.com/u54tD41oq8
— Infidel Angela🇺🇸 (@InfidelAngela) October 11, 2020
The Trump campaign, by contrast, is everywhere. Boat Parades. Mass rallies. And a well-coordinated Republican National Committee with significant resources deployed on the ground in the run-up to the legion day. Where Biden has none.
The Ground game will make a difference in the swing states.
#5: The Supreme Court vacancy will re-elect Trump
After the economy, the Supreme Court was one of the most significant factors in Donald Trump’s victory in 2016. Since then he has delivered in spades, with hundreds of Federal judges appointed and 3 Supreme Court justices.
The Amy Coney Barret nomination and hearings are a godsend, in more ways than one. She’s has sailed through the Judiciary Committee hearing and made the Democrat members look like fools. She will be on the court by the election, which will thrill and motivate Trump voters.
It has also made the court-packing issue a central one to the campaign. Trapping Joe Biden into an unsustainable position that “the voters don’t deserve to know where I stand”. Making every single Democrat running for Senate answer the same question. It is devastating.
Between the cementing of a conservative majority and making court-packing a wedge issue and symbol of Democrat lunacy, the Supreme Court as an issue will be decisive in winning the election for Trump.
#6: Law and order versus riots and looting
The law and order issue works decisively in Trump’s favor. From the endorsement of nearly every law enforcement organization in the country. To the decimation of our cities from Portland and Seattle to Minneapolis and New York. People are sick of the violence and bewildered by the response from Democrat officials.
Combined with Covid19 restrictions, hypocrisy about peaceful protests, and an apparently organized campaign of violence from Antifa and BLM. People are not stupid. All people.
Joe Biden can’t name one law enforcement organization that supports him
Black people don’t want the police defunded. Hispanics don’t want the police defunded. No one in their right mind would find the violence in Chicago and New York on a daily basis to be acceptable. Suburban women don’t want to see more violence.
Everyone can see the ineptitude and coddling of Democrat-run cities and states allowing violence to run rampant in the communities. Even as they clamp down on public rights while encouraging not so peaceful protests.
Donald Trump owns the law and order issue and it helps him.
#7: Suburban voters will vote Trump and flip the House of Representatives
The crucial suburban voter is actually far more disposed toward Trump than biased polls will suggest. Just as with law and order, suburban women abhor violence and don’t support defunding the police. Black Lives Matter and Antifa are not likely to appeal to suburban voters. But they make up the central message of the Democrat convention. In the midst of the violence that was never denounced until the polls showed it was working against them. In the suburbs.
The central voter choice mechanism is the economy. Trump is the easy winner on that issue. Both historically and looking forward to who is best suited to rebuild the economy from the Covid disaster. Especially prosperous suburban voters facing economic lockdown and higher taxes from Democrats. On the economy and law and order, the suburbs will trend toward Trump and bring along a Republican majority for the House of Representatives.
#8: Crucial issues favor Trump by 70% – 30%
On many of the most significant issues, 70% of Americans are in agreement. With social unrest ripping apart Democrat cities 70% choose All Lives Matter over Black Live Matter at 30%. On the COVID-19 pandemic, 70% of the public blames China, while 30% blame Trump.
70% denounce the riots and looting, while 30% insist they were peaceful protests.
#9: The gap in voter enthusiasm is significant
Donald Trump has an obvious and significant public enthusiasm. Massive rallies set up in the spur of the moment. Boat parades. Tractor parades. Spontaneous enthusiasm.
Like his ground game, Joe Biden has none of that. There is no enthusiasm for him. He has been incapable of generating it. It will make a significant difference at the polls.
Even more, the ridiculous polling numbers showing a massive Biden victory will suppress turnout for the Biden supporters among marginal groups whose voting turnout is low anyway. Minorities. Young people.
Democrats are trying to make up for this by universal mail-in voting. They are terrified at the inroads Trump is making in the black and Hispanic community. A last-minute effort at a ground game in swing states is unlikely to effective weeks before the election.
Trump will ride the enthusiasm gap to victory on November 3rd.
#10: Trump voter turn out will be above the national average
While we expect voter participation to be strong every election, the reality is that turnout for Presidential elections averages about 62%. Young people and minorities participate at much lower rates. Older voters have higher turnout rates.
But one of the keys to Trump’s 2016 victory was turning out people who had not voted before. Or increasing the level of true out for Trump voters through a targeted digital campaign. Independents and Democrats as well. Economic populists and patriots.
The enthusiasm for Trump is even stronger than in 2016.
Republicans have registered hundreds of thousands of more new voters throughout the swing states than Democrats. The RNC has a ground game. Biden has none.
Trump voters will turn out at levels closer to 70%, while Biden will have trouble turning out 62% of his voters. Even if overall participation is up numerically, the proportionate advantage will go to Trump and his supporters. Young people will not vote in the numbers expected, and Trump is making statistically significant inroads with black voters and Hispanics.
Trump supporters passionately support him. No one really supports Joe Biden. They just oppose Donald Trump. That won’t be enough to win an election.
On November 3rd we can expect a Trump victory and a Republican House of Representatives.
President Donald J. Trump is joined by members of the Pennsylvania Congressional delegation as he walks across the tarmac after disembarking