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State by State, COVID-19 death rate will peak over the next 6 weeks

Written By | Apr 1, 2020

WASHINGTON, DC: The COVID-19 death rate will rise across the United States over the next 6 weeks. Reaching a peak in New York around Easter. But not cresting in Florida until mid May. California can expect its greatest number of daily deaths towards the last week of April. Virginia and Maryland won’t peak until the middle of May, and will be coping with coronavirus deaths well into June.

Researchers from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics created a model showing when deaths and hospital resource use is estimated to reach their heights from coast to coast.

New York death rate

New York is estimated see its coronavirus deaths peak on April 10 with 798 deaths occurring that day, and 71,000 hospital beds needed

New York is estimating its coronavirus deaths peak on April 10 with 798 deaths occurring that day, and 71,000 hospital beds needed. They are ten days away from the peak of the infection.




Florida death rate

But Florida, expected by some to become the next epicenter, is not projected to see its peak until May 3

Meanwhile, California – which has the third most cases – is a projected 25 days from its peak April 26, and Washington, which has the fourth most cases – is 24 days away from its April 24 peak.

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Washington State death rate

Washington is estimated to report 29 deaths on its peak day with California to report 100 deaths. They are 24 days away from the peak of the infection.

Illinois death rate

Illinois is a bit closer and is projected to hit its peak on April 16, and report 88 deaths on that day – and 2,360 overall.

Virginia and Maryland death rate

Virginia is 47 days away from the peak of their infections. Peaking on May 17 with 35 deaths, it is expected to last into early July. The same projected course is true for Maryland and North Carolina.

In Maryland the death rate will reach its peak on May 12th, lasting well into June. That is 42 days until the peak rate of pandemic in that state.



North Carolina death rate

The death rate in North Carolina, by contrast, will peak in 22 days, on April 22 with an expected 56 deaths. The death rate should taper off sharply by early June.

Louisiana death rate

Hard hit Louisiana will see the pandemic peak in 11 days, on April the 11th, when 82 people are expected to die. But the death rate should drop sharply by early May.

Texas deaths will not peak until May

Texas, however, will not reach its peak death rate for another 32 days, on May the 2nd, when 102 people are expected to die. It is expected to persist throughout May and into June.

Even West Virginia will not escape the coronavirus

West Virginia was a haven, but is now expected to have a peak of 17 deaths on April 29th, in 29 days.

Throughout the country, COVID-19 deaths are on a stark upswing and will peak from New York in 2 weeks, to California in 4 weeks, to Florida and Virginia in 6 weeks.

Deaths rates may be severely mitigated by the availability of therapeutic therapies, such as Hydroxychloroquine with Azithromycin.

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As those therapies show promise in the next week they may sharply lower the rate of hospitalization, and the prognosis for those afflicted.

In either event, America is in for another 8 weeks at least of the coronavirus nightmare. Full revival of the economy remains elusive until June or July at the last. We can all take solace that continued efforts to fight the Virus will bear fruit.

But the light at the end of the end of the tunnel is months, not weeks away.

Lead Image: By Jef Poskanzer from Berkeley, CA, USA – Twin Peaks tunnel, CC BY 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=5487829

 

Rick Johnson