WASHINGTON, DC: The COVID-19 death rate will rise across the United States over the next 6 weeks. Reaching a peak in New York around Easter. But not cresting in Florida until mid May. California can expect its greatest number of daily deaths towards the last week of April. Virginia and Maryland won’t peak until the middle of May, and will be coping with coronavirus deaths well into June.
Researchers from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics created a model showing when deaths and hospital resource use is estimated to reach their heights from coast to coast.
New York death rate
New York is estimating its coronavirus deaths peak on April 10 with 798 deaths occurring that day, and 71,000 hospital beds needed. They are ten days away from the peak of the infection.
Florida death rate
Meanwhile, California – which has the third most cases – is a projected 25 days from its peak April 26, and Washington, which has the fourth most cases – is 24 days away from its April 24 peak.
Washington State death rate
Texas, however, will not reach its peak death rate for another 32 days, on May the 2nd, when 102 people are expected to die. It is expected to persist throughout May and into June.
Even West Virginia will not escape the coronavirus
West Virginia was a haven, but is now expected to have a peak of 17 deaths on April 29th, in 29 days.
Throughout the country, COVID-19 deaths are on a stark upswing and will peak from New York in 2 weeks, to California in 4 weeks, to Florida and Virginia in 6 weeks.
Deaths rates may be severely mitigated by the availability of therapeutic therapies, such as Hydroxychloroquine with Azithromycin.
As those therapies show promise in the next week they may sharply lower the rate of hospitalization, and the prognosis for those afflicted.
In either event, America is in for another 8 weeks at least of the coronavirus nightmare. Full revival of the economy remains elusive until June or July at the last. We can all take solace that continued efforts to fight the Virus will bear fruit.
But the light at the end of the end of the tunnel is months, not weeks away.
Lead Image: By Jef Poskanzer from Berkeley, CA, USA – Twin Peaks tunnel, CC BY 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=5487829