WASHINGTON, DC: In the coming Red Wave that will be the hallmark of Donald J. Trump’s re-election victory, Republicans can expect to pick up at least two, possibly three Senate seats on November 3rd. This is more than enough to offset any potential losses and maintain Republican control of the Senate. Trump’s re-election will take control of the House of Representatives away from Nancy Pelosi and the radical Democrats. Giving control to Kevin McCarthy and a new Republican majority.
At current, the Senate has split 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats. If Republicans only pick up two of these three seats, Democrats will still have to win at least five other races to take control of the Senate. If the GOP picks up all three then Democrats will have to pick up six Senate seats for a 50 – 50 tie, and seven seats to take control of the Senate.
I defy anyone to show me how and where that will happen.
Alabama, Michigan, and Minnesota
In Alabama Democrat Doug Jones is a placeholder Senator with no chance of holding on to the seat. That gives the Republicans a certain turnover in that Senate contest. Popular former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville will be Senator Tuberville in January.
In Michigan, black Republican candidate John James is about to sweep the Senate seat held by incumbent Democrat Gary Peters. Minnesota Republican candidate Jason Lewis is poised to oust incumbent senator Democrat Tina Smith. Both races will largely turn on the Presidential elections.
A Trump win will carry Senate Republican candidates to victory
The Presidential election is going to be lopsided in one direction or the other. Donald Trump will either be repudiated or will win an enormous unexpected but overwhelming victory. If Trump wins he will bring the Senate candidates with him. As well as the House of Representatives.
All signs point to a large and decisive Trump victory. That will have far-reaching repercussions.
The model is the Tory victory over Labour in the British elections last December 2019. A populist Conservative Boris Johnson won an overwhelming victory over aging Socialist Labour candidate Jeremy Corbyn. When all the polls suggested that Johnson and the Tories would lose seats.
Lessons from the Tory landslide victory over Labour in December of 2019
The Tories swept parliamentary seats in the West Midlands, an industrial working-class area, that had voted for Labour for over 50 years. That same thing is happening in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, especially the Iron Range of Minnesota. (Minnesota Iron Range Mayors give President a post-convention bounce)
These long time Democrat districts are turning to Trump.
Trump was endorsed by ten Iron Range Democrat Mayors for saving the mining and steel industry in their state. For reinvigorating the port of Duluth, Minnesota. For bringing back jobs and lives to desperate citizens in towns on the brink of extinction.
These are the voters who voted for Barack Obama twice and then turned to Trump in 2016. The same voters who watched Minneapolis and Waukesha looted and burned. Voters who have chaffed under Covid19 restriction, obsessive government control, the loss of their businesses, and the closing of their schools. They will be voting for Trump, and they won’t be coming back.
Expecting a Trump landslide to overwhelm Democrat Senate races
States that Donald Trump wins will have successful Republican Senate candidates. Almost without exception. With that as a basis then we are assuming a lopsided Trump victory on November 3rd.
Trump voters will be turning out at above normal ratios. First-time voters. Newly registered Trump Republicans. The hidden Trump vote that we all know is there. Black voters supporting Trump at rates over 20%. Hispanic voters supporting Trump at rates over 40%.
That means in Michigan and Minnesota Republicans will pick up Senate Seats. In addition to Alabama. But it also means that in South Carolina, Arizona, and Iowa it will be a decisive factor to save seats that are reportedly in peril.
Winning the Senate seats Republicans need to.
Does anyone really believe that Donald Trump will win South Carolina and that Lindsey Graham won’t. That Donald Trump won’t win big in Georgia and bring both of those Senate seats along with him. Or the same in Texas with John Cornyn, or in Kentucky with Mitch McConnell.
More significantly a Trump win in Arizona will pull Republican Senator Martha McSally over the finish line against Democrat Mark Kelly. A Trump win in Iowa will re-elect Joni Earnst. In Montana Senator Steve Daines is well ahead of his opponent, former Governor Steve Bollock.
In North Carolina, the sex scandals surrounding the extramarital affairs of Democrat Cal Cunningham have all but assured a Thom Tillis victory, especially if Trump takes the state again.
So in state after state Republicans are expected to retain their seats in the wake of a Trump victory. Arizona, Montana, Iowa, North Carolina, South Carolina, and two seats in Georgia should all stay in Republican hands. Republicans will pick up Senate seats in Alabama, Michigan, and Minnesota.
Where do Democrats expect to win?
The only seats that Democrats can expect to pick up realistically are in Colorado and Maine. However, neither of those comes with a guarantee. But it is certain that Republican Cory Gardner and Susan Collins are the most vulnerable GOP members of the Senate up for re-election.
In Colorado, Senator Gardner is behind popular former Governor but failed Presidential candidate Democrat John Hickenlooper. Meanwhile, in Maine Senator Collins is locked in a battle with Maine Speaker of the House Sara Gideon. Both could lose, or both could squeak out a victory.
Gardner seems to be in real trouble and Trump isn’t expected to win Colorado, which could spell his doom. Collins is poised to save herself, using packing the Supreme Court as a potent weapon against her opponent in her last debate.
Especially if Trump wins the Maine 2nd Congressional district, Collins could hold onto her seat.
Trump re-elected, 56 Senate seats, and a Republican House of Representatives
In a best-case scenario, Republicans could pick up three Senate seats, lose none, and have 56 seats in the next Senate. Assuming a Gardner loss in Colorado gives Republicans 55 Senators, a gain of two. If Gardner and Collins both lose there are still 54 Republican Senators, a gain of 1.
Now conversely if Joe Biden wins the election, then all bets are off, and he will likely take the Senate and House with him. But that is not what appears to be happening. By all accounts, Trump, and down-ballot Republicans, are barreling toward landslide (re)-election. Of epic proportions. Like the UK’s Conservative party in 2019.
Remember that just before the British elections in 2019, the polls were all over the place. Jeremy Corbin was actually being painted as a genuine potential prime minister. But the voters saw the choice as being between populist economic freedom and an autocratic feeble socialist state.
They were decisive in rejecting socialism, radical ideology, and an aging feeble candidate.
American voters will do the same. By overwhelming margins.
Trump will get more Black and Hispanic votes than any Republican in history. He will flip districts in Minnesota, Michigan, and Wisconsin that voted for Obama twice, and make them for Republicans what the West Midlands are now for Boris Johnson and the Tories, Trump country.
In all the handwringing over the US Senate and packing the Supreme Court, Democrats and the media are missing one important point. They have to win first. They have to flip the Senate first.
As things stand Democrats have next to no chance of winning the Senate. Republicans in a position to pick up as many as 3 new seats. For a 56 – 44 Republican senate majority.
When that occurs it will bring with it a governing majority in the House. Then Trump will have two years to enact the rest of his economic agenda. Health care. Infrastructure. Middle East peace.
The voting patterns are closely linked. The historical patterns are clear. The trends emerging in the election just days away are decisive. The coming Trump landslide will reduce the Democrat Party to a fringe minority, in the House and the Senate, just as Labour is now in England.
It can’t happen soon enough.
Morning Reader Data Points:
National Daily Black Likely Voter Job Approval For @POTUS – October 19-23, 2020
Mon 10/19 – 25%
Tue 10/20 – 24%
Wed 10/21 – 31%
Thu 10/22 – 37%
Fri 10/23 – 46%
— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) October 23, 2020