WASHINGTON, DC: Donald Trump is right. With 4% economic growth Republicans stand to pick up 3 to 8 Senate seats and retain control of the House in the Midterm elections this fall. The Midterm Elections will be a Republican victory of sweeping proportions, in spite of the widespread predictions of a Blue Wave of Democrats taking away control of the House of Representatives.
The more likely scenario is one where Republicans pick up between 6 and 8 Senate seats and retain control of the House. There are no scenarios where Republicans fail to gain at least 3 Senate seats, and there are plausible scenarios where they actually gain seats in the House.
Midterm Elections and conventional wisdom
The Blue Wave is a farce, a media creation peddled like Hillary Clinton’s inevitable victory, based on the knee-jerk and shallow assumption that the Presidents Party always loses seats in midterm elections.
Except when he doesn’t. Except for 2002 when George Bush gained seats, and 1998 when Bill Clinton gained seats. Clinton was in the midst of impeachment proceedings, and Bush was a year into what was looking like a grinding war of attrition in Iraq.
There are a number of considerations why Democrats will fail to gain the House, in spite of the willful rosy scenarios painted by Larry Sabato and Charles Cook.
Midterm Elections: Republican Advantages
One is the nature of midterm elections. Turn out for midterms is always less than a general election. Young people, black people, and latino’s vote in far lower percentages. Conservatives and older voters turn out in much higher numbers.
One of the reasons the Tea Party was so successful in 2010 and 2014 was just because of that dynamic. The power of conservative forces is amplified in midterms, not diminished.
In spite of all the pussy hat rallies and constant cries of racism and sexism and the 24 hours a day news cycle of Trump hate speech on CNN and MSNBC, voter turnout this fall will mirror voter turnout in every midterm of the last 60 years.
Midterm Elections: Black support for Trump
Black people didn’t turn out for Democrats in 2010, and 2014, or for Hillary in 2016. Young people and Latinos simply won’t be there in the numbers the Democrat pollsters are suggesting. And there is another problem.
Trump support among African American is rising, to almost 30%. Why? The Economy stupid. Black unemployment is at an all-time low. Latino unemployment is at an all-time low.
Now Trump isn’t going to win the black vote. He doesn’t need to. Last time only 1 in 10 black people voted for Trump. All he needs is 2 in 10. Kanye West is the tip of the iceberg.
Already it appears 3 in 10 black Americans would be willing to vote for Trump.
Trump reshapes the Republican electorate
That is huge. That is monumental. Because Trump only needs to get 20 – 30% of the black vote and Democrats will NEVER win another election. He only needs to get 3 Latinos in 10 to vote for him, instead of 2.
From the looks of it, he already has them. Imagine a world where Democrats don’t have a stranglehold over the black vote. A world where they don’t keep a boot on the neck of black and minority communities, holding them down.
Imagine 4 out of 10 blacks supporting Trump. Imagine 4 out of 10 Latinos supporting Trump and Republican policies. Its happening, and its a threat to the Democratic Party that they don’t even acknowledge.
It’s happening because his policies are working. The economy is growing at a rate of 4.1 percent. Manufacturing is coming back. Jobs are coming back. Growth is becoming exponential. All communities are benefitting.
Trump, Trade, Tariffs and Victory
Do you really expect voters to vote against a President with an economy growing at 4%. I don’t have to quote James Carville, but the most important issue in every election is the economy, and ours is roaring.
Oh, but trade tariffs are screwing things up, the Democrats cry. Not so. An EU deal is on the plate. A Mexico deal with Lopez Obrador is almost certain by mid-September, and a deal with Canada shortly afterward.
That will leave the US in a far superior position when a showdown on trade comes with China, probably after the elections. A showdown the Chinese will blink at, while pretending not to.
With deals in place with the EU, Mexico and Canada, it is China that will be isolated from its principle trading partner. Once Trump wins the midterms his hand will be strengthened.
Midterm Elections: What China and the Media have in common
Its one of the reasons China is targeting Republican districts with tariffs. It a big reason behind the motives of not only China but the TV networks as well.
They are all going after Trump. It is relentless. CNN and MSNBC have become unwatchable with their constant barrage of Trump hate speech. They need for him to lose. It seems their very lives depend on it.
They all think that if they can keep it up long enough it will have the desired effect. They are active opponents of the President, hoping for the hail mary pass of a Trump loss in the House this fall.
But they are painting the same playbook, from the same pundits, the same pollsters, the same arrogant pronouncements as when they were certain Hillary would be elected and Trump would lose.
It’s a strategy. Its a coordinated campaign of truly hyperactive coverage of fake news, with hyperbolic reporters, breathlessly screeching the latest breaking news in their best Dan Rather melodrama.
Midterm Elections: the People see through the Media
Like the Chinese, they want Trump weaker. They want him to lose. They don’t even pretend otherwise. But there is a problem. Nobody is being fooled.
A close friend who is a prominent liberal told me, surprisingly, when I was making a point about media bias,”Don’t you think people see through that.”
It was a refreshing bit of candor.
People do see thru it. America is not buying the CNN narrative on Donald Trump. Fortunately, we still have elections. And like 2010, and 2014, 2018 will see a triumph for Trump voters.
Among other things, Trump voters know that the President is being treated unfairly. They seeth at the hypocrisy of the Russia Investigation. They are appalled by the constant revelations about corruption in the Justice Department and intelligence agencies.
Undermining Democracy: the corruption of the Deep State
They see what Peter Strzok and Lisa Page and John Brennan and James Clapper and Jim Comey tried to do to our electoral process. They see the FISA court abuses and the ties of Fusion GPS with Hillary and the Democrats and the Russians and the FBI to conspire to frame Trump for treason.
You would have to be blind and infantile to not see and acknowledge the crimes against Democracy that has been perpetuated by the Democrats and Barack Obama’s Justice Department in this McCarthyite smear campaign against the President.
Jim Comey and John Brennan have done more to undermine American democracy then the Russians ever could. They have engaged in an active conspiracy to overthrow the government of the United States.
Midterm Elections: Trump supporters will turn out
The American people know this. Trump supporters are energized and will turn out at levels closer to Presidential election percentages this fall. This is largely because they see his Presidency is threatened by Democrats who will simply not accept the results of the last election. Democrats who have shown they will do anything to stop him, legal or not.
On top of the increased turnout of Trump supporters, Trump will get higher levels of black and Latino support. That factor alone will be crucial to eroding Democrat margins. Combine that with an energized conservative base and the result is a victory.
Midterm Elections: The Senate
Then there is the Senate. Republicans could pick up as many as 8 Senate seats, giving them a filibuster-proof majority. Let’s look at it.
In Arizona, Martha McSally is almost certain to break the stranglehold of the McCain/Flake never-Trumper’s resistance with a solid vote for his agenda.
In Florida Rick Scott is going to send an aging and increasing confused Bill Nelson into retirement. Marsha Blackburn has a great chance of holding onto Bob Corkers’ seat in Tennessee, and would be a much more reliable Trump supporter than Corker.
In Missouri, there is simply no way that Claire McCaskill is reelected. Josh Hawley is even in the polls and given her and every Democrats opposition to the very successful tax cuts that have sparked 4.1 % economic growth, McCaskill is on her way out.
Midterm Elections: Tester, Heidkamp, and Manchin are goners
For this same reason, Jon Tester and Heidi Heidkamp are going to be in trouble in Montana and North Dakota. Both voted against the tax bill and with Chuck Schumer.
Altho Real Clear Politics lists them and Joe Manchin of West Virginia as leaning Democrat, I cannot help but believe that all three are in trouble, and I count them as turnover seats.
Midterm Elections: John James in Michigan
In Michigan, new Republican Senate nominee John James is the most exciting candidate in the country. As an African American combat veteran who runs a $120 million a year business, he is the perfect image for a Republican Party that has always stood for, as James puts it, “Emancipation, Suffrage, and Opportunity.”
Expect John James to be the next Senator from Michigan, a symbol of Republican crossover to the black community with an economic message of empowerment. He will be a rising star in the Republican Party when he beats incumbent Debbie Stabenow.
Midterm Elections: Republicans could pick up 8 Senate seats
In New Jersey, Bob Menendez is in real trouble, as his ethical problems and corruption trial takes its toll. Bob Hugin has a chance to make this a turnover seat for Republicans.
In Nevada, Dean Heller is almost certain to win a close election. In Indiana, Mike Brown looks to pick up a Republican seat from a weak incumbent Joe Donnely.
However, in Ohio and Pennsylvania Jim Renacci and Lou Barletta are in uphill battles with incumbent Democrats Sherrod Brown and Bob Casey.
So Florida, New Jersey, Missouri, South Dakota, West Virginia, Montana, Michigan, and Indiana all have great potential to flip. Republicans can expect to pick up at least 3, probably 6, and more than likely 8 Senate seats.
Midterm Elections and Democratic Socialism
Then there is the whole emergence of the far left and the Democratic-Socialism wing of the Democrat party. This is not a winning strategy for Democrats. It is a prescription for a civil war within the party and defeat at the polls.
If you are the Democrat party of Nancy Pelosi, socialism, open borders and eliminating ICE against the Republican party of 4% growth, a strong economy, and strong borders then you are going to have a hard time winning.
Midterm Elections: The coming Red Wave
Add the demographic factors of the Midterms: conservatives and the elderly vote more often, and how young people, blacks, and latino do not and you have a red wave as far more probable than a blue one. At worst Republicans may lose a few House seats, but they will retain control of the overall house.
Add to that the changing face of black and Latino support for Donald Trump and we may have not just a reformed economy but a reformed electorate.
One thing is certain. Donald Trump will almost certainly be much stronger after the midterms. China and the Democrats know this. They had better buckle up.
They will be dealing from a much weaker position come 2019.