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Prediction: Dems shellacked in 2018 elections, Trump wins reelection in 2020

Written By | Nov 29, 2017

WASHINGTON, November 29, 2017 – President Trump’s approval rating has been in the mid 30% range since his inauguration.  Historically the President’s party usually does poorly in mid-term elections. Most political analysts expect the Democrats to gain seats in both houses of Congress in 2018.

Democrats believe that they will defeat Trump in 2020.  However, exactly the opposite is likely to happen.

Winning the 2016 Election

Since winning the election one year ago, the Democratic Party and the liberal mainstream media (MSM) have not accepted the will of the American people. Instead, they say that Trump’s collusion with the Russians was to discredit Hillary Clinton by posting fake news online.

Some Democrats want to see Trump impeached, even though there is no legal basis for impeachment.  They simply judge Trump as unfit to be President.  There is so much negative press about Trump, that it is no wonder his approval ratings are so low.




Why will things change so dramatically by 2018?

Many Americans complain about Trump’s use of his twitter account.  Opponents are outraged at some of the things that Trump tweets.  His actions are so different than any other president.  The contrast to former president Barack Obama is remarkable.

Obama carefully spoke, with each word carefully selected to judge the public’s reaction before the words are spoken.  Obama often spoke through the media.

Trump, on the other hand, is a New Yorker from Queens.  As such he often speaks from his heart without considering how his statements will be perceived.  While it outrages many traditionalists, his supporters find it refreshing.

They always know exactly where Trump stands on every critical issue, without the sometimes biased filters provided by reporters.

By election time next year, the American voter will have gotten over the shock of Trump’s tweets and they may become more routine.  More importantly, Trump will have turned things around on the key issues that are of most concern to Americans.

What are the key issues that will influence voters in 2018?
The economy

The economy, the number one issue for most Americans, has been stuck in a slow-growth mode since 2005, which was the last year annual economic growth was at least 3%.  This lack of growth has led to a lack of opportunity for tens of millions of Americans.  That meant about 7 million workers have dropped out of the labor market.  Millions of underemployed Americans have had to take jobs that they are overqualified for.

College Benefits

New college graduates were lucky to find one good opportunity instead of historical patterns where good students had two or three options.  Consumer confidence dropped resulting in Americans holding back on spending. The mood in the country was not good and often hostile.

Regulations

Already, by removing counter-productive regulations, economic growth has exceeded 3% for the past six months.  Consumer confidence is at levels is high.  Consumers feel wealthier since the value of their retirement accounts has increased more than 30% since trump won the election.

Tax Reform

The GOP sponsored tax reform bill will likely pass by the end of the year, which will accelerate economic growth to at least 4% and possibly much higher.

That will create the opportunity for well prepared American workers which will raise wages, reduce under-employment and lure those discouraged workers back into the labor force.  Americans who now oppose Trump will admit their opposition was unfounded and they will want to stay the course and vote for Republicans.



Healthcare

Trump will have also tackled the other serious concerns of Americans.  He will have forced Congress to deal with the healthcare issue.  By this time next year, there will be a new health care law in place which solves most of the problems with the current system.  Americans will feel more secure.

Immigration

The next major issue is immigration.  The past four or five presidents essentially refused to deal with the immigration issue by simply passing short-term solutions and pushing the problem to the next president.  Trump won’t do that.  He is demanding Congress come up with an immigration policy that can have majority support.

Democrats provide no solutions.

Since the Democrats refuse to provide solutions but simply have taken an “anything but Trump” position, they have nothing positive to offer.  Americans will be fed up with old-school Democrats who appear to be corrupt and offer only policies that are counter-productive to economic growth.

Old school Democrats continue to offer policy positions which focus on the bottom 15% of income earners while clobbering the vast majority of Americans.

Americans will reject Democrats

In 2018, Democrats will offer old-school candidates Americans will soundly reject.  That means the GOP will end up with 57 Senators and perhaps more.  They will increase their majority in the House.

By 2020, Democrats will offer new candidates with fresh ideas.  While that will help them, it won’t help enough, and Trump could win by a landslide.

Michael Busler

Michael Busler, Ph.D. is a public policy analyst and a Professor of Finance at Stockton University where he teaches undergraduate and graduate courses in Finance and Economics. He has written Op-ed columns in major newspapers for more than 35 years.