TRENTON, NEW JERSEY: With the number of polls predicting the Menendez – Hugin November election, you would be right to expect vastly different results. Getting to the truth, however, takes a bit of research. Polls that favored Menendez early on are changing. As have the polls that favoring Bob Hugin. Stockton, for instance, had Hugin within 2 points on September 27. On October 30, Stockton was pro-Menendez. Hugin has a larger percentage of the Republican support and an increasing percent of Independent support.
Additionally, Hugin’s holds a 1 percent lead in favorable rating and a 30 point lead in the highly favorable category.
In “Menendez and Hugin crisscross the state ahead of Election Day” the candidates offered their poll impressions:
“Hugin said the race is tight.
“I need your help. We’re this close. We’re this close. The last poll we had, our internal poll, was a couple days ago, we’re up 2 points,” Hugin said.
A Quinnipiac Poll released Monday had Menendez up by 15 points — 55 percent to 40 for Hugin. That’s Menendez’s highest margin in awhile.
“All of you have written, whether I’m up by 5 or 12, or today I think there was a poll that had us up by 15, that the race is close. We’re going to wait until tomorrow and we’re going to fight for every vote,” said Menendez.
Hugin criticized the methodology in the new poll.”
Why polls are so different
There are several overlapping demographic algorithms in the polling process that are inherently subjective: sample size, a degree of creative license and general language structure. Then there is the all important data aggregation and statistical modeling methods used to compile and present that data.
Polls, reported in the mainstream media, have been conducted for the most part by phone. An inherit flaw. The great ecclesiastical minds of the Garden State polling diaspora pursues its agenda regardless.
Truth be told a great deal of the population is actually on this thing called the internet. And polls that are internet based provide astronomically different images of the electorate. An image that favors Bob Hugin to great extent. An internet poll conducted post-debate put Hugin up by double digits.
The question is what truly measures favorability in the modern internet era. An era of self-driving cars, Uber, Candy Crush games, and everyone’s favorite Tivo.
The Stockton poll, specifically, is weighted to the 50-60 age group. Meaning it under-represents the 18-30 demographic.
Additionally, the poll queried 10 fewer Republicans and 24 more Democrats. So there was 4 percent shift in the polls just as a result of the skew in the number of Democrats polled as compared to Republicans.
Bob Hugin spent the last 2 days of the campaign in an online advertising blitz.
Phone polls of 18-30 years old are also skewed because they are the largest, and most influential, voting block. They set the trends. It’s not that these are fake polls engineered to give the candidate a dishonest edge over another. It is one of the elements of statistical probability.
A sample size is only predictive if it is a large enough percentage of the demographic. If it miscalculates the validity of a specific variable, there is going to be an error.
Accurate depictions of the social and political climate help people become more conscious of a positive mindset. There are a couple of ways to pinpoint this data. Google has the premium features. Accurate. Pinpoint results that predict a different landscape than the one simple polls provide.
A look at Google trends results for the number of New Jersey residents using the 3 search terms Donald Trump, Bob Hugin and Bob Menendez shows how keen voters are about each candidate. According to Google Trends Hugin leads 28 to Menendez 18, on the day before the election, in the number of people interested enough to search for the candidate.
A lot of interest in the Bob Hugin grassroots candidacy seems to be generated over the internet. The numbers are pretty clear.
Yeah, but it’s only a poll
If you took an honest poll of how New Jerseyans felt about Bob Menendez or any other corrupt politician for that matter you probably could not print half the responses even minus the expletives. So there would be no use trying.
Trump interests trump the searches for Obamacare, Economy and Political corruption. Making the election more about his performance on the economy, homeland security, even transportation, community development and a whole lot more. Areas Menendez failed to fix or overlooked entirely.