As a political watcher, I can honestly say that you cannot trust the polls. I know no one, Democrat or Republican, who has ever been polled. Nonetheless, they are what they are with liberal media skewing reporting to show that Biden is a guaranteed win. Do you remember 2016? Hillary Clinton does. A big talking post-convention talking point is the “bounce.” A candidate’s support increasing following their nominating conventions. But that bounce ignores politicians voting against their party and the enthusiasm of people, like me, who have in over 60 years never been politically polled.
Following the Democrat convention, and according to Reuters/Ipsos polls, Joe Biden saw no bounce.
According to a pre-Democrat convention article in Vox (Convention polling bounces, explained)
“So how often do conventions actually make a difference? If the question is whether conventions affect the polls in the short term, the answer is a resounding yes. In fact, a “post-convention bounce” is one of the most consistent and well-documented patterns in presidential polling — most candidates get one, though not all do, and the magnitude varies.”
The writer, Andrew Prokop, continues:
“However, Columbia University statistics and political science professor Andrew Gelman and others have argued that sudden poll swings can often be explained by the phenomenon of “differential nonresponse” — that, at certain points in the campaign, supporters of one candidate might be less likely to answer pollsters. When it comes to the conventions, Democrats may be less likely to respond when Republicans’ convention is getting all the news coverage, and vice versa.
Whatever the reason, the swings can be dramatic enough to change which candidate is leading polls:
In 2004, George W. Bush and John Kerry were locked in a tight race in August, but after the GOP convention wrapped up, Bush surged to around a 6-point lead.
In 2008, Barack Obama led John McCain throughout the summer, but McCain took a narrow lead after the early September GOP convention.
In 2012, Obama led all year, but Mitt Romney moved into a tie after the late August GOP convention. Then, though, Obama quickly jumped back into first after Democrats’ convention the following week.
And in 2016, the Republican convention in July put Trump briefly ahead of Clinton, but once again, Democrats’ convention the following week put Clinton back in front.
Joe Biden’s Bounce or Flop?
In Why Joe Biden’s bounce might not be coming, Politico’s Steven Shepard writes:
“Clinton’s post-convention bump appeared larger in the moment — but the American Presidency Project at the University of California, Santa Barbara concluded Trump had a slight edge on this measure, a 3-point bounce to Clinton’s 2-point uptick.
Four years earlier, then-President Barack Obama got only a modest bounce (3 points), and Romney actually lost a point according to Gallup, which measured the presidential horse race consistently prior to 2016. And in the 2008 election, John McCain (6 points) out-bounced Obama (4 points) — in large part thanks to the initial energy around his surprise pick for vice president, then-Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin.”
So, the liberal media explains that it does not matter that Joe Biden did not receive a post-convention bounce. He has the lead, that is all the matters. My suggestion would be to ask Hillary Clinton if a poll leads means a presidential win?
“Biden held his lead over President Donald Trump in the national opinion poll taken Aug. 19 to 25, with 47% of registered voters backing the Democratic challenger and 40% supporting the Republican incumbent. That was a similar edge to what Biden had before his party’s convention, a scaled-back, virtual event because of the coronavirus pandemic.”
President Trump’s Bounce
The President did see his polls numbers change following the Republican National Convention.
“President Donald Trump needed a convention bounce — and he got one, emerging from the Republican National Convention with an improved standing against Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, fueled by gains among white voters and those in the suburbs, though he still trails the former vice president nationwide.” (Trump Pulls Closer to Biden After RNC -Post-convention poll shows Trump almost halved national deficit against the Democratic nominee)
The bottom line on Presidential polls and bounces is “who knows?” It depends on who takes the poll and where the poll is taken. Also, there are three things – as one Fox guest said – that people do not want to answer.
Do you have:
- A gun in your house?
- Gold in your house?
- Do you support Donald Trump?
A better indicator of candidate support?
The Iron Range of Minnesota is an area in Northern Minnesota that includes ore-rich areas – the Cuyuna in the South. Mesabi in the middle and the Vermillion in the North. There are currently six active mines, all of them are located on the Mesabi. The Mesabi Iron Range includes the communities of Hibbing, Chisholm, Mountain Iron, Virginia, Eveleth, Gilbert, Biwabik, Aurora and Hoyt Lakes, Minnesota. (Mesabi Iron Range)
As Greater Minnesota Mayors from Democratic cities on the Iron Range of Minnesota, we write today to formally endorse the re-election of President Donald J. Trump and Vice President Mike Pence. Like many in our region, we have voted for Democrats over many decades. We have watched as our constituents’ jobs left not only the Iron Range, but our country. By putting tariffs on our products and supporting bad trade deals, politicians like Joe Biden did nothing to help the working class. We lost thousands of jobs, and generations of young people have left the Iron Range in order to provide for their families with good paying jobs elsewhere. Today, we don’t recognize the Democratic Party. It has been moved so far to the left it can no longer claim to be advocates of the working class. The hard-working Minnesotans that built their lives and supported their families here on the Range have been abandoned by radical Democrats. We didn’t choose to leave the Democratic Party, the party left us.
— Benedict White (@BenedictMPWhite) August 28, 2020
President Trump’s Mid-Western Agricultural Supporters
In Michigan, Wisconsin and New York are the pivot counties. Usually, areas that rely on agriculture and Made in American manufacturing. In 2016, President Trump was able to turn those districts from Democrat control to Republican supporters. Democrat policies enacted by Obama/Biden saw manufacturing move to China, where they directly competed with American produces like Debbie Flood of Wisconsin’s Melron Corporation:
Or Wisconsin Dairy Farmer Cris Peterson:
But it is not only Minnesota Mayors and Wisconsin farmers, but also Jason Joyce a Main Lobster Fisherman whose fourth-generation family business was saved by Trump-Pence policies that Joe Biden will reverse:
President Trump wins the enthusiasm race, hands down
Possibly as hard to pin down as polls is enthusiasm. According to the Pew Report, 66% of Trump supports are strong supporters, versus 23% who are moderate supports. The strong supporters, the based, will not move their vote.
Biden’s strong support among likely Biden voters is 46%, with moderate support at 43%.
“More than eight-in-ten Biden voters (84%) and Trump voters (85%) say they are certain to support their preferred candidate in the upcoming presidential election. Only about 5% of voters who support either of the two candidates say there is a chance they will change their mind (5% of Biden supporters, 4% of Trump voters).”
But a better indicator may be the thousands of Trump supporters in New Hampshire. Supporters unable to get into the Trump appearance, lined the airport runway to cheer the President.
The boat parades supporting President Trump, from Clearwater, Florida to Newport Beach, California, are making it into Guinness Record books.
Wherever he goes, supporters line streets , even in the most previously blue cities and neighborhoods, like this group gathered in New Jersey.
Lee Zeldin, a House Republican from New Jersey, is a strong supporter of Donald Trump.
Zeldin, along with New York. Rep Elise Stefanik and six colleagues served as informal Trump defenders in media appearances during the Senate Impeachment trial. Zelden and Stefanik also appeared to support Trump during the RNC.
New Jersey’s Jeff Van Drew, at the RNC, told the audience his first vote as a Democrat in the House was against Impeachment, and Nancy Pelosi assault ont he President. Van Drew has now left the Democrat party for the Republican party.
Support on the ground, on the water, and in the air is palpable. In this video, the President’s helicopters fly over the Ft. McHenry Boat Parade on orders from the President.
One of the stark differences between the Democrat and Republican National Conventions was the diversity of thought and inclusion of all Americans – regardless of race, religion, or sexual orientation. Millenial Tiffany Trump, a recent law-school graduate, and Californian offers one of the best defenses and reasons for turning away from liberalism and returning Donald Trump to the Oval Office.