Skip to main content

It’s Still the Economy, Stupid: Why Republicans will win on Tuesday

Written By | Nov 2, 2018
Republican, Democrat, Trump, Economy, Elections, L.J. Keith

WASHINGTON, D.C: The recent pre-election jobs report smashes all expectations. The Trump Republican economy is responsible for 250,000 new jobs in October. Estimates of new job growth were 190,000. Additionally, average hourly wages increased by 3.1%. This is the best growth since the Great Recession of 2009.  The unemployment rate stayed at the lowest it has been in 50 years, at 3.7%.   Republican policies are out-Trumping the Democrat Obama era of stagnation on every level.

The ranks of those employed rose to a record 156.6 million. The labor participation rate increasing by 2/10s of 1% to 62.9%. Almost 500,000 people joined the work force.

All of these gains were in spite of two of the worst hurricanes in American history. Arguments are that economic gain numbers would have been even better without those disasters. They also come two weeks after economic growth for GDP in the third quarter was 3.5%.

All on the heels of growth of almost 4% in the second quarter.

Carville and Reagan had it right, and so does Trump

During Bill Clinton’s 1992 Presidential campaign strategist James Carville hung a sign in the candidate’s office saying:  “The economy stupid.”  Before meme’s ever existed, Carvel’s on point message became “It’s the economy stupid.”

Carvel’s meaning being that economics and economic growth trumped everything else in the decision-making process for voters.

Ronald Reagan asked the famous debate question to Jimmy Carter: “Are you better off than you were four years ago.” The answer to that question was a definitive no, and Reagan was elected by a landslide.

Four years later it was morning in America and Reagan was reelected as his economic growth program brought America back to life, creating a surging economy, restoring American confidence, and cutting interest rates on housing from a crazy 19% to nearly 6%.

Trump has done more in two years than Obama did in eight

In two years Donald Trump has accomplished much more than that. The tax cuts passed at the end of his first year have been the engine of growth for much of this year. The cuts in burdensome regulations have been staggering, eliminating 20 regulations for every new one instituted.

Barack Obama, in his best year, was never able to achieve economic growth of more than 2%, even coming out of a steep recession when the bounce back should be significant.  However, Obama did run massive deficits, destroyed jobs, regulated everything from farm ditches labeled “wetlands” by the EPA, to shipping jobs overseas by the factoryful.

Polls tilt to Hugin in N.J.: DNC cash infusion helps battered Bob Menendez

3.5% growth is the new normal.

Under Obama, Americans were told 2% growth was the new normal. The Obama litany of failure continued with American manufacturing jobs gone and coal miners told to retrain in wind and solar power technology. America had to accept its new place in the world as the doormat of China and the diversity social experimentation lab of the Democrat party.

Transgendered bathrooms anyone?

Well, sorry folks. It doesn’t work that way. In 2018 its still the economy stupid. Immigration, health care, just about any issue, affects the economy, stupid. Everything Trump has said he would try to do he has done, from economic growth to fighting dishonest trade tactics. We stand on the precipice of another five years of high economic growth.

Voters will reward Trump with a Republican victory

Voters will reward Trump this coming Tuesday. Republicans will pick up 6 to 8 Senate seats. Thats right, at least 6 and possible 8 Senate seats. Republicans will retain control of the House of Representatives, in spite of Nancy Pelosi’s premature victory dance.

The howls of the “impartial” pollsters, whose new projections are as biased as their famously inaccurate predictions were in 2016, will prove to be only so much blather and propaganda.

America will not turn its back on a booming economy. It is still the crucial factor behind all voting decisions. Are the American people better off than two years ago. You bet they are.

Ye, formerly Kanye West, is leading the revolution among black voters

Black voters are turning away from the Democrat Party

Black unemployment is at an all-time record low. Unemployment among black youth is at an all-time record low. Hispanic unemployment is at an all-time record low. Donald Trump only got one in ten black and Hispanic votes in 2016. He is certain to get two of ten this year.

If the Kanye effect is a reality, and black voters come to their senses, Trump will see three in ten black votes. The Blexit movement is real. Blacks who are pro-Trump will almost certainly vote in higher percentages than the black population as a whole.

The reality is that in the mid-term elections blacks, hispanics, and young people vote in lower percentages than whites, conservatives, and older people. These are immutable facts. No amount of wishful thinking by Larry Sabato and the Cook Political Report will change that.

People know the stakes and the consequences

Trump supporters and conservatives know how important these elections are. If the Democrats take the House and Nancy Pelosi is the new speaker, you can expect at least a 2000 point drop in the DOW on Wall Street the first week after the election.

Under Democrat rule, business hiring and investment will be put on hold as uncertainty and capital flight resume. You can expect everything Trump has accomplished to put America back on the right track to be threatened.

The American people know that, and it is being reflected in certain statistical realities. Republican early voting is exceeding levels in 2016. Exceeding levels from a Presidential election in a mid-term election. That is unheard of.

Democrat savagery toward Kavanaugh ensures their defeat in November

Early voting favors Republicans

Democrat early voting is lagging from its 2016 levels. For example, in Florida Republicans have a 64,000 vote lead over Democrat early voters. In 2016 Democrats had a 24,000 vote advantage in early voting.

The same trend of Republican early voting is being repeated around the country.   Formerly reliable organizations like Real Clear Politics and the Cook Report show such heavy bias in their polling and predictions as to question their impartiality and their credibility.

This would be the second election in a row that they will be shown to be in the tank for Democrats. From using sampling that includes more Democrat than Independent and Republican voters, to using averages including registered and not likely voters.

Midterm electoral behavior will remain unchanged

A study by Harvard University Kennedy School of Government reports that young voters will turn out at 40% levels in the midterms.

“The Institute of Politics (IOP) at Harvard Kennedy School today released the results of their biannual survey of 18- to 29- year olds showing that young Americans are significantly more likely to vote in the upcoming midterm elections compared to 2010 and 2014. Overall, 40 percent report that they will “definitely vote” in the midterms, with 54 percent of Democrats, 43 percent of Republicans and 24 percent of Independents considered likely voters. As young Republicans have become more engaged, the preference among likely voters for Democrats to control Congress has decreased from a 41-point advantage in the IOP April 2018 poll to a 34-point lead today (66%-32%).”

Harvard’s conclusion is preposterous. Young voters barely register 30% even for a Presidential election. Turnout for the entire public in 2016 was barely 60%.

Should we believe that 100 years of electoral behavior will be upended because the media hates Donald Trump? That’s not just wishful thinking. It is a deliberate distortion. The enthusiasm level for Democrats from their base seems contrived and emphasizes a level of engagement that simply isn’t there, and won’t be on Tuesday.

Winning big after Pres. Trump’s 6-state blitz on key GOP Campaign issues

Trump supporters are actually fired up

But one group fired up are Trump supporters. They know that the future of the Republic is at stake. Republican and Independent voters saw what the Democrat Party did to Brett Kavanaugh.  And they know the implications of open borders and the Soros financed Caravan.

Voters, young and old, have watched two years of McCarthyite smears about Russian Collusion and the Mueller investigation.

They know that Obama and his CIA, State Department and Justice Department deliberately tried to frame candidate Trump, and then President Trump for treason.

They know how a Democrat victory Tuesday will be the start of two years of obstruction, investigations, and calls for impeachment.

Trump will reap victory, Democrats will reap the whirlwind

Most of all they know what Trump has done for the economy, and that Democrats will derail the recovery. Moreover, they recognize the Stalinist, extremist, vicious character of Democrat operatives and tactics.

They are appalled by what they see, and they will turn out to save the Republic. Trump rallies regularly draw 10,000 to  20,000 people, with supporters sometimes having to park miles away from the venue. They are awoken by how much is at stake in this election.

Democrats have trouble turning out 1,000 supporters. Yet they and their media allies continue relentlessly chanting their propaganda about the Blue Wave, and the turning of the House, and the inevitable Democrat victory, just like they did in 2016.

Confession: I have been radicalized by the radical President Trump

It’s STILL the economy, stupid

Once again, in an Orwellian repeat of 2016, the media and the Democrat party will be wrong. Because in the long run its ALWAYS the economy stupid. Always. And the American economy in 2018 is on fire. Worker participation rates still have a long way to go. That is continual fuel for sustained growth over the next four  years.

I don’t care what the pundits say, or the media. Or what the biased pollster says. I heard it all before the coronation of Hillary Clinton in 2016.

In 5 days the American people will speak loud and clear. The media will melt down once again. Democrats will lose, and on a scale that no one could anticipate.

Because its all been a shell game. A lie, a propaganda war waged by the media and the Democrat party. A campaign against the American people to convince us its all over.

Hand  Pelosi the gavel. Its a done deal. Except that it isn’t.

Swing voters are breaking Republican, and Republican turnout will be high

Women will be breaking for Republicans, as has been shown in Arizona. Independents will be voting Republican in many of these swing districts as they make their final decisions. Republicans will be turning out in record numbers for the midterm. Blacks will be voting Republican in ever growing numbers.

In the final analysis, when the actual votes are counted Donald Trump will prevail, in the Senate and the House. It comes down to Independent voters, the engine of economic growth, and higher turnout and enthusiasm from Republicans, especially in suburban districts.

Women are not a Democrat monolith, and neither are blacks.

The American people aren’t sheep. They know what’s going on. They see how the playing field tilts. Don’t believe the media hype. It’s still the economy, stupid. Numbers don’t lie.

Lead Image: 

President Donald J. Trump walks across the South Lawn of the White House Thursday, Nov. 1, 2018, to board Marine One for his flight to Joint Base Andrews, Md. to begin his trip to Columbia, Mo. (Official White House Photo by Joyce N. Boghosian)

L.J. Keith

LJ Keith is a non-partisan commentator taking aim at all aspects of governmental domestic and foreign policy and the American socio-political landscape with an eye toward examining the functional realities of the modern age, how they can be understood, and what context to view the changing face of life in America and its place in the world at large.