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Will there be a war over Ukraine? Not likely. Here is why.

Written By | Feb 18, 2022
Russia, Ukraine, War

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The ongoing crisis in Ukraine is playing itself out with Putin calling all the shots, and the west dancing to his tune. This situation has developed because Putin wants to control Ukraine, and push NATO to the breaking point. So far Putin is getting everything that he wants, while Biden is showing that he doesn’t have the ability to be in the game.

However, the immediate prospects of war over Ukrainian sovereignty are limited.

That doesn’t mean that the brinkmanship game wasn’t upped recently. Newsmax reported that Ukraine was hit by a cyberattack after Russia’s announcement that it had begun returning troops home after “training exercises” on Ukraine’s border. (Ukraine Hit by Cyberattack as US Questions Claims of a Russian Troop Pullback)

That report indicated that their online defense ministry networks, along with two bank networks, were hit with denial-of-service cyber interference. With that move, the stakes were moved up.

Later reports on Rumble show Russian tanks continuing to move close to the Ukrainian border. (). Further complicating the situation. This ‘fog of war’ plays right into Putin’s plan.

All this while Joe Biden uses this crisis to obfuscate his horrible domestic policies.

Nonetheless, Joe is causing just as much panic among Americans as Russian tanks are with the people of Ukraine. While Putin is saying he is withdrawing troops, Biden is saying that he is increasing them. (Who Believes International War is Coming?)

With 150,000 Russian troops still in invasion positions along Ukraine’s borders, and a cyberattack still underway, Putin’s statement that Russian Federation troops’ training exercises are now over, rings hollow.

However, the fact is that Putin is playing a game of brinkmanship that verges on war, simply to show the world how mighty Russia has become since the end of the Cold War.

He is also showing the world what weak leadership America now has.  And that NATO is nothing but a paper tiger.

Putin is demanding that NATO not accept any new members from the former Soviet Union.

Moreover, they must acquiesce that membership by former Soviet client states is voided. His demands are chilling, close to a declaration of war, but just short of one.

Putin’s true ends are yet unknown; however, he will take everything that he can get from a weak NATO and a feeble Joe Biden. And that seems to be the point. To get what concessions that he can, while bringing Ukraine under Russian control.

The whole conundrum began with Joe’s feckless leadership of NATO and in international diplomacy.

Joe backed away from the firm stance in international affairs that President Trump had shown.

That created a void in international leadership that both China and Russia rushed to fill. China is cooling its heels until the Olympics are over, However, Russia charged forward showing its ability to cause an international crisis by simply sending troops along the Russian – Ukraine border.

This move served a double objective. One was to put fear in Ukrainian citizens and politicians alike. The second was to see how the west would react. The first is causing panic among Ukrainians, and the second is fear and hopelessness among the west.

By positioning troops on Ukraine’s border, NATO was thrown into a fright.

At the same time, Biden was unable to cope with a real crisis not initiated by his political party. He was so slow to react, and that empowered Putin to move even more troops into attack positions. Thereby giving him a much stronger bargaining position, while limiting the west’s ability to counter.

The more the west flopped around like a fish out of water, the more aggressive Putin became. Until today NATO and Biden are willing to offer concessions simply to appease Putin. Exactly where Putin wanted to be.

Without a shot being fired, the west is backing down to aggression.

Exactly as Putin had wanted. Vlad knew just how much aggression to show that doesn’t rise to the level of war. With all of Biden’s tough talk about how he is going to place sanctions on Russia if they do invade, the truth is that there is, in all likelihood, little chance that Russia will force a full land offensive.

This assessment is based on prior events. Putin has done this same thing before, without sending in his troops in a massed attack. While his ultimate goal is still to control Ukraine for the betterment of Russia, he has prior experience in doing this very same thing in other nations.

Belarus and Kyrgyzstan are the templates for what is about to happen in Ukraine.

In each instance, Russia backed a pro-Russian candidate for their president. And then they caused internal strife. With the chaos created, they then rigged the elections in order for their candidate’s victory. Even if those rigged elections were messy, they installed their chosen puppet.

In both Belarus and Kyrgyzstan, after the elections, the people revolted against the results. Those who saw the rigged elections for what they were, were put down hard. False charges were brought against protesters, with long periods of jail without trials. You know, typical third-world stuff. Just as was done against those Americans who protesting the rigged election of 2020.

Today both Belarus and Kyrgyzstan stand as two of Vladimir Putin’s strongest allies.

Both are ready to wage war to protect Mother Russia. This brings us right back to that recent cyber attack on Ukraine. It marks the beginning of the end for a free Ukraine.

Why, because Vlad’s primary intentions are to bring Ukraine under his power.

To do so he will use cyber, and economic strangulation. You didn’t think those two banks were chosen as a distraction. He hopes that the combination of cyber control, to control the narrative to his benefit, and economic, to disrupt Ukrainian citizen’s lives, is enough to cause a chaotic election so that he can use the chaos to hide his interference in the democratic process. Much like America’s 2020 election.

In this way, he can control the outcome without bloodshed.

Putin wants regime change, and he will continue until he gets exactly what he wants.

It is ironic that Biden chose to suddenly talk of war threats against Russia soon after the inflation report came out, dropping his poll numbers to a record low.

Vlad isn’t the only one who knows how to create a diversion.

Nonetheless, the outcome of the border incident between Russia and Ukraine will affect America because Biden needs the cover of an international situation to press ahead with his socialist takeover of America. Like Vlad, Joe needs the chaos, that he himself creates, to cover for his nefarious deeds.


Read more from Joseph Ragonese.

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About the author:

Political Staff Writer Joseph Ragonese is a veteran of the United States Air Force, a retired police officer,  has a degree in Criminal Justice, a businessman, journalist, editor, publisher, and fiction author. His last book, “The Sword of Mohammad,” can be purchased at in paperback or kindle edition.

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Joseph Ragonese

Joseph Ragonese is a veteran of the United States Air Force, a retired police officer, has a degree in Criminal Justice, a businessman, journalist, editor, publisher, and fiction author. His last book, “The Sword of Mohammad,” can be purchased at in paperback or kindle edition.