Skip to main content

Battleground state polls show Trump winning general election

Written By | May 11, 2016

WASHINGTON, May 11, 2016 — Most polls minimize his odds of winning the presidency, but some rays of hope are shining on Donald Trump. According to a Quinnipiac University survey released on May 10, the race between Trump and Democrat frontrunner Hillary Clinton is within the margin of error in three crucial states.

Clinton leads Trump by only one percentage point in both Florida and Pennsylvania and trails the billionaire by four points in Ohio. For months, conservative and liberal pundits have dismissed Trump’s odds of winning the nomination, then of winning the general election against the former secretary of state.

Will Trump unify the GOP?

Most interesting is how well Trump is doing in the Democratic stronghold of Pennsylvania. It must be a shot in the arm to his campaign and his supporters to know that he can win there. Trump is doing better than the last two GOP nominees, Arizona Sen. John McCain in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012.

The Real Clear Politics national poll averages taken between April 11 and May 9 have tightened as well. They have Clinton leading Trump 47.3 to 40.9. A CNN/ORC national average taken between April 28 and May 1 had Clinton leading Trump 54 to 41, a dismaying (for Trump) 13-point gap.

In a presidential campaign where both candidates are strapped with high negatives, the race could end up going to the last one to hit the bottom of the election barrel. The poll shows that both candidates have high negative favorability ratings with voters in all three states.

As has been true in the race for the nomination, Trump does well among white men in the current polls. A key issue in the campaign, building a wall to keep out illegal immigrants, has not critically harmed his polling numbers.

For example, in Florida the voters are split 48 to 46 percent on whether the U.S. should construct a wall along the Mexican border. Fifty-four percent of men support the wall, while 52 percent of women oppose it.

Talking about Donald Trump instead of what Donald Trump can do

On the economy, which has been at or near the top of polls as the most critical issue facing voters, Trump leads Clinton. Even though Trump and Clinton are viewed skeptically on trustworthiness, voters feel that the successful businessman is better equipped to handle the economy and create jobs.

Terrorism is another issue that voters in the three battleground states see as a strong point for Trump; this is despite Clinton’s stint as President Obama’s secretary of state.

With six months and two national conventions still ahead, the voters in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida will be watching the candidates closely. With Ohio’s 18, Pennsylvania’s 20 and Florida’s 29 electoral votes, their combined total of 67 may determine the outcome of the election.

Whether Trump will defy the political odds makers and march successfully into November is certainly within the realm of possibility. After all, he beat 16 contenders and the GOP establishment to get this far.


Kevin Fobbs

Kevin Fobbs began writing professionally in 1975. He has been published in the "New York Times," and has written for the "Detroit News," "Michigan Chronicle," “GOPUSA,” "Soul Source" and "Writers Digest" magazines as well as the Ann Arbor and Cleveland "Examiner," "Free Patriot," "Conservatives4 Palin" and "Positively Republican." The former daily host of The Kevin Fobbs Show on conservative News Talk WDTK - 1400 AM in Detroit, he is also a published author. His Christian children’s book, “Is There a Lion in My Kitchen,” hit bookstores in 2014. He writes for Communities Digital News, and his weekly show "Standing at Freedom’s Gate" on Community Digital News Hour tackles the latest national and international issues of freedom, faith and protecting the homeland and heartland of America as well as solutions that are needed. Fobbs also writes for Clash Daily, Renew America and BuzzPo. He covers Second Amendment, Illegal Immigration, Pro-Life, patriotism, terrorism and other domestic and foreign affairs issues. As the former 12-year Community Concerns columnist with The Detroit News, he covered community, family relations, domestic abuse, education, business, government relations, and community and business dispute resolution. Fobbs obtained a political science and journalism degree from Eastern Michigan University in 1978 and attended Wayne State University Law School. He spearheaded and managed state and national campaigns as well as several of President George W. Bush's White House initiatives in areas including Education, Social Security, Welfare Reform, and Faith-Based Initiatives.