WASHINGTON, September 9, 2016 – At the end of the first full week of September, as we count down to November 8th Election Day, Hillary Clinton’s lead in the polls is eroding, if not disappearing as Donald Trump keeps traveling to meet with the people in Cleveland, Detroit, Pennsylvania – here, there and everywhere.
One thing is sure, this election is changing and while Clinton holds onto the electoral college, Trump is showing that he could overtake the Democratic nominee on November 8th, but only if he can change the structure of the race – but there is only 60 days to November 8th. A huge mountain for the Trump campaign to climb – but he is not afraid of huge.
Will Trump need to rely on the October surprise, or Julian Assange, to barrel past Clinton?
In the general election poll results as reported by Real Clear Politics, Hillary Clinton is holding a +4 advantage over the GOP nominee, Donald Trump. But that is only the big picture, when you look at the races in battleground states like Florida; Quinnipiac has Trump and Clinton at a dead tie.
Ohio – the state that is held as the presidential holy grail – Trump leads Clinton +4, while Clinton is holding a +5 lead in Pennsylvania, however Trump has the affinity of the middle class coal miners and steal workers that may silently come out to vote for Trump.
North Carolina has Clinton ahead, according to Qunnipiac poll, while the Suffolk poll has Trump +3, while Colorado and Oregon are firmly in the Clinton pack.
Quinnipiac University reports:
The post-Labor Day presidential campaign begins with Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump locked in close races among likely voters in the critical swing states of Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today.
The huge gender and racial gaps that have marked this presidential campaign are still in play, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds. The exception is North Carolina, where there is a wide racial gap, but almost no gender gap. In Pennsylvania, Clinton loses support among women and Democrats.
The presidential matchups show:
• Florida – Clinton and Trump tied 47 – 47 percent;
• North Carolina – Clinton at 47 percent, with Trump at 43 percent;
• Ohio – Trump at 46 percent to Clinton’s 45 percent;
• Pennsylvania – Clinton tops Trump 48 – 43 percent.
“The effect of the Republican and Democratic conventions on the presidential race has run its course. As the campaign enters its final stage, Florida and Ohio, two of the largest and most important Swing States, are too close to call, while North Carolina and Pennsylvania give Hillary Clinton the narrowest of leads,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
“The obvious takeaway from these numbers is that Donald Trump has staged a comeback from his post-Democratic convention lows, especially in Pennsylvania and Ohio. Taking a bit longer view, however, we see a race that appears little changed from where it was as the GOP convention began in July, and at least in these four key states is very much up for grabs.”
A stunning new poll Tuesday showed Donald Trump has reclaimed the lead from Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton, becoming the latest survey to suggest the GOP presidential nominee has put a bad month behind him.
Republicans on Capitol Hill said they’re increasingly hopeful of Mr. Trump’s chances in November, saying he’s done a better job of making the election about Mrs. Clinton — whose negative image remains a hurdle on her path to the White House.
The latest CNN/ORC survey, released Tuesday morning, showed Mr. Trump with a 2-percentage point lead in a national four-way race among likely voters with Mrs. Clinton, Libertarian hopeful Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein.
Pollsters cautioned that the CNN poll seemed skewed toward Republicans, but with a spate of other recent surveys also showing Mr. Trump within the margin of error, Mrs. Clinton’s post-convention bump has dissipated.
The latest Real Clear Politics average has Mrs. Clinton leading Mr. Trump head-to-head by just 2.4 points, which is down from the nearly double-digit advantage she held a month ago.
Mr. Trump, speaking at a rally in Virginia Beach, said the new polling has boosted his fellow Republicans’ morale. “It’s good psychology,” he said. “People that didn’t call me yesterday, they’re calling me today.”
USA Today reports on the polls, writing:
The race between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton in some battleground states is tightening, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released Thursday.
The polls found that in a one-on-one matchup in Florida, Clinton and Trump are tied with 47% support each among likely voters. When third-party candidates are added into the mix, Clinton and Trump are still tied, this time at 43%.
Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson had 8% support and Green Party candidate Jill Stein had 2% backing.
Clinton did have a 4-point lead in North Carolina in a one-on-one match-up, 47%-43%. That lead remained the same when third-party candidates were added, 42%-38%. Johnson had 15% in North Carolina; Stein is not on the ballot in the state.
Ohio voters are also basically evenly divided between Trump and Clinton in a one-on-one matchup, 46%-45%, but when third-party candidates are added, Trump has a 4-point lead 41% to 37%. Johnson had 14% support and Stein came in with 4%.
Clinton is ahead of Trump by 5 points in Pennsylvania. That lead remains in a four-way race with Clinton at 44% support, Trump at 39%. In that race, Johnson had 9% and Stein had 3%.
In August one-on-one match-ups Clinton was ahead by 1-point in Florida (within the margin of error), 4 points in Ohio and 10 points in Pennsylvania. Those leads have diminished over the last month. North Carolina polls were not released in that same August batch.
The polls out Thursday were conducted Aug. 29-Sept. 7. In Florida, 761 likely voters were surveyed. That poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 points. There were 751 likely voters polled in North Carolina, with a margin of error of 3.6 points. Seven-hundred and seventy-five likely voters in Ohio were polled with a margin of error of 3.5 points. Pennsylvania polling of 778 likely voters also had a 3.5-point margin of error.
NewsMax reports that Trump is surging among the minority vote (National Poll: Trump Surges Among Latinos, African-Americans):
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has some favorable ratings among both Latinos and African-American voters, according to results of the latest Franklin Pierce University/Boston Herald poll.
The poll’s demographic breakdown showed that by combining voters who were “very favorable” and “somewhat favorable” to Trump, the billionaire developer got a positive rating from 35 percent of Hispanics and 24 percent of African-Americans.
• 18.4 percent of Hispanics rated him “very favorable;”
• 16.4 percent of Hispanics rated him “somewhat favorable.”
Among black voters:
• 10.5 percent rated Trump “very favorable;”
• 13.3 percent rated Trump “somewhat favorable.”
A Breitbart analysis of the poll notes Trump would not win with either group because 49 percent of Hispanics and 69 percent of African-Americans still have a “very unfavorable” view of him.
As of this day, The New York Times forecasts that Democrats have a slightly better chance (55%) over Republican’s (45%) of winning control of the Senate.