Austin, Tx., July 11, 2014 — Climate alarmists hoping for a super-El Niño this fall and winter to jolt global warming back into high gear again are likely going to be sadly disappointed.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center released its July monthly El Niño report on July 10. The consensus probability for El Niño conditions in the Northern Hemisphere remained unchanged, but indicators of the strength of the El Niño have weakened considerably since last month. Earth, though, still remains under “El Niño Watch”.
Forecasters now predict that El Niño 2014 “will peak at weak-to-moderate strength during the late fall and early winter”. The report says, “chances of a strong El Niño are not favored” in the models.
Fears of a catastrophic super-El Niño are gone.
Super typhoon Neoguri effects
It’s pure speculation and probably will have no effect, but super typhoon Neoguri may have sapped some of the energy from El Niño over the 10 days when it swept across the western equatorial Pacific where El Niños spawn.
Neoguri drew heat from the ocean and intensified east blowing trade winds. Both effects are temporary, but could further weaken El Niño 2014.
As of today, there is no hint of trade wind reversal showing up yet. The reversal of trade winds is one of the main drivers of El Niño that wreaks climate altering havoc. Tropical storm nine is now forming in the western Pacific and further drawing trade winds eastward in the normal counter-El Niño direction.
El Niño strength indicators deteriorate
A number of El Niño indicators have declined in the last month.
According to this month’s report, “weakening (is) evident near the International Date Line”. The Nino-4 index decreased to +0.3°C. Subsurface heat content between 180º-100ºW has decreased substantially since late March 2014 and is now back near average (Fig. 3).
The all-important Niño-3.4 index, which defines an El Niño event, remains at +0.4°C. That’s just below El Niño strength.
All these things affect El Niño climate modeling and forecasts.
Climate Model Changes
The latest empirical data input into the models this month show a downward curl that was only hinted at last month. All this indicates a much weaker event than feared in April.
July’s El Niño update report from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is very good news. April fears of a strong super-El Niño have evaporated. The forecast now calls for a weak to normal event. According to modeling, the Niño-3.4 index won’t get much higher than it already is.
However, this is bad news for hard core climate alarmists. The theory of anthropomorphic (human-caused) global warming is falling on hard times. It has been over 15 years since there has been any statistically significant global warming despite that CO2 emissions have accelerated during that time and now top 400 ppm.
Climate alarmists are becoming increasingly anxious for global warming to resume. They are looking for something, anything, to kick start warming again and have been counting on a strong El Niño this year to do the trick.
It’s not looking like El Niño 2014 will help out alarmist thinkers very much this year after all.