AUSTIN, June 10, 2014 — A popular global warming myth is that “extreme weather” tornadoes are increasing in numbers and intensity. The myth is fueled by news media hype. NOAA’s Storm Event Database disagrees.
The 2014 tornado season is on track to be the weakest on record, according to Dr. Harold Brooks, a long-time senior research analyst at the National Severe Storms Laboratory in Norman, Oklahoma. According to Brooks, this is the third exceptionally weak year in a row.
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NOAA records show, as of June 3rd, there have been 35 tornado fatalities in 2014. That compares to 55 in 2013, 70 in 2012 and a whopping 553 in 2011 by June 3rd in those years.
My best guess is that this is the slowest start since 1915, and maybe even 1900
-Dr. Harold Brooks, National Severe Storms Laboratory, 4/22/2014
This year is not just unusual, according to Brooks, it’s unprecedented. Through May 22, the fewest number of U.S. tornadoes on record have been recorded.
From Aug. 7, 2013, through April 13, 2014, the Norman, Oklahoma NWS office set a new record for its longest tornado-warning-free stretch, at 316 days. The previous record was 293 days, set in 1991.
Just the facts
Returning to “extreme weather”, tallies of all major F3/F4/F5 and only F4/F5 tornadoes since 1950 show that intense tornadoes have decreased, not increased as the news media would have us believe.
The last bastion of hope for global warming theorists who believe that “extreme weather” tornadoes are increasing, rides on the shoulders of the biggest, bad-boy tornado of them all, the frightening F5.
In the movie “Twister”, storm chaser Helen Hunt is the only researcher who’d ever seen an F5. It killed her father when she was a child; sucked him right out of their storm cellar while he valiantly struggling to hold the doors closed. That childhood tragedy drove her to become a tormented tornado hunter who risked her life seeking a way to increase tornado warning times by just a few minutes.
An F5 is the most terrifying tornado of all.
The F5 tornado record
NOAA’s complete record of F5 tornado events from its storm event database is included in this graph. Though statistically weak, it shows since 1950 that F5 tornadoes have decreased by 70 percent!
Alert readers may note that the number of F5s in the graph seem higher than they should be. They are. That is because the storm event database captures county-based tornado events. If a single F5 crosses county or state boundaries, then each time is entered as a separate tornado event.
Global warming theorists will cry foul, especially given the 70% decrease, but event recording has the distinct advantage of capturing not only the numbers of F5 tornadoes, but their implied intensity as well, if they are long lived and travel over great distances.
A strait up tally is unlikely to show a different result. Besides, there is sometimes uncertainty as to whether eyewitnesses, radar and/or the damage path show one or more tornadoes. There may be less uncertainty in county-based event recording.
Some have suggested that 63 years isn’t long enough to establish a meaningful trend. They correctly suggest that a longer record with larger numbers of F5s would be more accurate. The pre-1950 work of Thomas Grazulis, documented in the July 1993 text “Significant Tornadoes 1680-1991: A Chronology and Analysis of Events” is cited as a source of additional data.
NOAA’s storm database is a living document. That means it’s constantly being updated with new information as it becomes available. For NOAA, history doesn’t have a statute of limitations.
The above graph, no doubt, will be updated as new historical data comes online.
Brooks calls pre-1953 records of tornadoes “sketchy”, including NOAA’s own records. According to Brooks, pre-1953 data is less reliable because that was before the SELS program, precursor to NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center, was started in 1952.
NOAA’s data remains the best available until older records from Grazulis or others become accepted as complete.
More about “extreme weather” tornadoes
There are other less direct ways to determine if severe tornadoes are increasing or not.
Fatalities caused by tornadoes are decreasing. That should not surprise anyone.
Weather forecasting, building construction and tornado warning systems are much improved. People have more time to seek shelter. You’d expect deaths to decrease whether tornadoes are becoming more intense or not. We are simply better prepared for them.
This graph shows that property damage caused by tornadoes before 1980 was much higher than after 1980. Costs are levelized using three different methods so that an apples-to-apples comparisons can be made between the years.
A notable exception is the super outbreak of 2011 with very high property damage. However, since then 2012, 2013 and now 2014 are exceptionally weak tornado years with low property damages reported.
The graph comes from a scientific paper titled, “Normalized tornado damage in the United States: 1950–2011” published by Kevin M. Simmons, et. al, in the journal Environmental Hazards, 12/5/2012.
Again, part of the decrease in property damage over time is explained by better warning systems and more tornado-resistant building construction. Forewarned is forearmed.
NOAA’s yearly report of strong to violent tornadoes, which includes all F3/F4/F5 tornadoes, shows that damaging tornadoes have decreased since 1953. Remove the weaker F3 tornadoes from the tally and the results are still the same.
The last glimmer of hope for global warming proponents claiming that “extreme weather” tornadoes are increasing in numbers and intensity rested with the biggest of the big tornadoes, F5. But F5s show a 70 percent decrease since 1950 and there weren’t even any F5s at all in the first three years.
Truth is, with only 138 tornado F5 events in the entire NOAA database, a trend line has low statistical value given the wide scatter in F5 yearly tallies.
Even combined with decreases in both fatalities and property damage over time, the numbers do not conclusively prove that “extreme weather” tornadoes are decreasing.
But what all that does prove is that “extreme weather” tornadoes are not increasing! The tornado myth, hyped by the media and pushed by global warming theorists, is just that – a myth. It’s a myth that refuses to die.