NEW JERSEY, January 22, 2014 — According to recent studies by the Princeton University Department of Mechanical Engineering and Aerospace Engineering, Facebook will lose about “80 percent of its peak user base between the years 2015 and 2017.” The research was conducted on an unusual model of epidemiology that is used to study the rapid spread of disease.
The study claims that Facebook has “already reached the peak of its popularity and has entered a phase of decline.” Facebook has disclosed that it has lost teenaged users and a study by digital consultancy iSrategy Labs has revealed that Facebook has 25 percent fewer users last year than it did on 2011.
The study compares business models to infectious disease models noting similarities in beginning, peak and decline that have similar lifespans and both are considered, in some fashion, infectious. The notion is users will lose interest in the current Facebook model.
There are about one half dozen new social sites available today each with their own attractions and each capable of diminishing Facebook alone or collectively. One new site, Snapshot, seems to have captured many of the Facebook users.
Researchers wrote, “ideas, like diseases, have been shown to spread infectiously between people before eventually dying out and having been successfully described with epidemiological models” in the past.
The study posits, ‘We have applied a modified epidemiological model to describe the adoption and abandonment dynamics of user activity of online social networks” and ‘extrapolating the best fit model into the future suggests that Facebook will undergo a rapid decline in the coming years losing 80 percent of its peak user base between 2015 and 2017.”
Pew Research shows in the last four years; 63 percent of Facebook users access the site daily compared to Instagram running 57 percent, twitter at 46 percent and Pinterest at 23 percent.
T he Pew Internet and American Life Project found that while Facebook is the leading social networking site for American teenagers, it is also the most criticized and reviled because of growing adult usage and presence lending credence to other sites taking market share.
Facebook went public with their stock 15 months ago opening at $38 per share and as of today; the stock value is $57.42, down $1.67 from yesterday. Tom Taulli of the online investor site InvestorPlace has declared four reasons for the inevitable decline of Facebook; Age, a problem that hurt Yahoo and AOL, advertisements that annoy users, loss of newness that undermines the ‘cool’ factor and lack of innovations and updating the Facebook brand.
Paul Mountjoy is a Virginia based psychotherapist and writer