WASHINGTON – This column has been playing hooky over the past few trading days. That’s mainly due to a lack of brilliant things to say about our current, largely positive, but still baffling US stock market. Baffling? Yes, because, given the current, media-hyped political and economic environment and the absurdly overhyped Phase 3 coronavirus wave, Mr Market remains remarkably upbeat. More or less. What gives?
Add to this the constant additional media propaganda claiming that Sleepy Joe Biden is president right now – which he most certainly is not – traders blow hot and cold on this stock group and that. This creates a confusing search for new market sector champions, with various analysts claiming they know the answers for sure. It doesn’t give the average investor much confidence in the system.
Mr Market keeps trying to melt up, despite all the political chicanery
That said, Mr Market’s November tendency is still to “melt up.” And today was a classic example of that. All three major averages wallowed in negativity for much of the day before, one by one, they began to wax slightly hopeful again. That caused market average to close up at Thursday’s 4 p.m. Wall Street bell. But only by the tiniest of fractions. It’s all reminiscent of the problems stocks faced during losing Presidential hopeful Al Gore. Who, by the way, took some 37 days to concede his defeat.
It’s a mess. And the media doesn’t help with its day-in, day-out lying campaign. American voters and American investors can be forgiven these days for thinking that Fox News and the AP get to declare the constitutional winners of this year’s presidential contest, even though Fox News and the AP are not mentioned as having any power to do so in the US Constitution. No wonder the media and America’s socialist party are so eager to trash this great, historical document.
What I’m trying to emphasize here is that the whole political and investing environment is so fraught with confusion that investors are no longer sure what to invest in, if they invest in anything at all.
And then there’s all that demoralizing Phase 3 coronavirus wave hype: I.e., let’s cancel Thanksgiving and Christmas
Now, add to this the media frenzy – amplified by a small cadre of truly despicable and despotic Blue State governators – the latest coronavirus scare which, naturally, is leading them to once again ban all that is dear to American families, like Thanksgiving and Christmas, and we’re seeing a willful demoralization of all classes of Americans that’s truly unprecedented. It seems to be an orchestrated campaign to demoralize all Americans to the point of suicide. Until, magically, on January 20, 2021, Sleepy Joe Biden rolls back into The Swamp on a snowy white steed to rescue America from its recent Plague Year, since, after all, he invented all those new coronavirus vaccines that are even now lining up at the gate.
It’s another fake story that, of course, might not happen if President Trump can actually prevail against the latest Deep State coup attempt directed toward the likely earned renewal of his astonishing, and astonishingly effective presidency. Nonetheless, I think that the Biden Savior narrative is being built even as I type this column out. And, perhaps, those insiders in the know – i.e., the ones who helped fund this year’s ongoing electoral coup – know exactly what companies and what stocks will be favored if this boldest of all coup attempts against the American people prevails.
You can buy my interpretation of history or not. It matters little. Because it’s ultimately going to be the narrative that traders and investors actually buy that’s going to move markets between now and then.
More on the fallout of the media’s Phase 3 coronavirus wave hysteria
In the meantime, by carrying on a campaign to deprive Americans of their most treasured national family-oriented holidays, the Marxist coup-sters are looking to demoralize the populace, thus damaging this year’s crucial retail holiday season. If they succeed, what remains of retail could get crushed. So, too those animal spirits that once drove this country relentlessly forward.
Surprises could still happen, both economically and politically. But every day the current election remains apparently unresolved puts the Deep Staters one step closer to destroying America’s long-held, long-cherished democratic public. Which means that the likely winners – even though the market is selling them right now – will be, once again, the tech and entertainment giants who funded the republic’s overthrow this year. So once again, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Twitter, Microsoft, Disney, Comcast and the like – the true 21st century heirs to the tradition of the late 19th century’s Robber Barons – could end up riding roughshod, again, over other investing sectors.
That’s about the best I can do right now to predict how this year might close, barring the usual unforeseen disasters and lurking black swan events we can’t yet see.
Tech is hurting right now. But which stocks will benefit during another useless lockdown? Yep…
Cynical as usual, I continue to hold modest positions in Amazon, Apple and Microsoft in our portfolios. Sometimes you have to hold your nose when investing in certain companies, and, alas, if you go all moral about investing, you’ll surely lose your shirt. I’d prefer to invest in a few more retailers and industrial companies. But these companies look may end up crushed beyond recognition if the left denies President Trump the second term he almost certainly won by a landslide. And I hesitate to even think of the bloodbath that might soon unfold in the energy sector.
But right now, the best offense is a great defense. Which means holding the likely winners if the criminals and thieves who stole year’s actually “win” it.
Unfortunately, as we await the final outcome, picking the ultimate winners may remain difficult. Why? Because picking those winners in our unconvincingly positive market remains a challenge.
It seems even less likely that we may even come close to enjoying a Santa Claus Rally to end the year. Because we don’t know if Blue State Lockdown Fever may lead to the cancellation of even that popular, longtime New York City Christmas tradition: the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day parade. There’s that Phase 3 coronavirus wave syndrome again.
Keep an eye on your investments, early and often. I’ll see you again when I have something more constructive to write about. Investors need some clarity. And soon.
– Headline image: A certain political party’s fondest wishes. Cartoon by Garrison. Reproduced with permission and by arrangement with Grrrgraphics.com.