WASHINGTON – Surprise! Monday’s surprising and rather unexpected rally is currently being dwarfed by an even bigger, more all-encompassing Election Day 2020 rally. We’re all watching US stocks party hearty Tuesday. But with all the gloom and doom gathering on the horizon, what’s the deal? Since Mr Market has been driven much of this summer and fall by headlines rather than earnings, charts and other technical, we have to ask: Is it the economy? Does the market expect a Biden win? Or are the bulls stampeding because they see a Trump victory?
US stocks party hearty. Why?
Maybe the fact that the current earnings season has highlighted a continuing stream of positive earnings surprises for a great many US companies, contrary to the gloomy predictions most media outlets have continuously predicted? It would be nice to think this is true. But again, markets have been so obviously driven by politics over the past six months, we have to wonder if these earnings surprises, plus associated record GDP numbers really have much effect at all.
Is Mr Market excited because he knows a Biden win is on the way?
Could be. After all, the polls all say Slow Joe will win. Big time. And that the Senate will go Socialist and the House will stay Socialist. Big time. And so do the army of pundits who reliably report only the actual news and scientific truth to us on NBC, CNN, MSLSD et. al. Even the polls at Fox say Slow Joe is in the driver’s seat today. So what’s not to like? US stocks party hearty for a lot of reasons. Even bad ones.
If Slow Joe wins, expect auto stocks, oil stocks, natural gas stocks, manufacturing stocks and resource stocks to tank and keep on tanking. Expect “green” and “alternative energy” stocks to soar.
But wait! Natural gas stocks came to life today. Smaller energy firms are posting gains. So are traditional US auto companies. More and more industrial firms are seeing their order books fill up. Weren’t all these down and dirty resource and manufacturing companies supposed to be DOA if they catch even a whiff of a Biden win.
So what gives?
Maybe Mr Market spies the absolutely impossible: A Trump victory.
Maybe the industrial (including the autos) stocks, the material stocks and the traditional, fossil fuel-based energy companies are getting excited today because they believe that the impossible is about to become reality. Namely, that Donald Trump, the worst charlatan, the worst imposter, the absolute worse Russian puppet US president of all time is on the verge of re-election. That’s something all the Royal Smart Persons have been telling us for the past 4 years. After failing to impeach this villain. Twice.
Can such things be? Perhaps. After all, aside from the coronavirus disaster that temporarily squashed the ongoing Great Trump Rally, the US economy has been on a tear in the nearly four years since The Donald took office. Despite being hounded from Day One of his administration by the vast, deeply embedded, deeply Ivy League, deeply globalist fake socialists running America’s Deep State.
How did this happen? It was easy. Trump just began canceling the binders full of asinine Obama Era regulations that were strangling America’s energy producing and manufacturing jobs – jobs that, since the Clinton administration, had been freely bequeathed to Communist China and other dictatorial states via the vile NAFTA legislation of the 1990s. Aside from this past Coronavirus Spring, we’ve watched US stocks party hearty more than once. They bounced right back from that crash. And they did so again today. So far at least.
Maybe that Biden win just wasn’t in the cards. Maybe it was a just a pipe dream. As Lady Brett Ashley once mused, “Isn’t it pretty to think so.”
Trump knew how to revive the economy, restore America’s animal spirits, and get the middle class back to work
As manufacturing began to re-shore here in the US, aided and abetted by the massive Trump-GOP tax cuts, America’s working class middle class began to actually find work again. That, in turn, plus increased take home pay, made tens of thousands of US citizens productive again, bolstering all those returning industries, including countless new fracking sites.
We could go on. But you know the rest of the story. Ironically, while most American corporations have massively benefited during President Trump’s initial term of office, most of their CEOs still contribute mightily to America’s now-confirmed Socialist Party, which is actually against their best interests. They’d love to continue with Trump’s policies while getting rid of Trump. That’s an impossible dream. And, frankly, a stupid and outright suicidal one. But no one said human beings needed to be logical. Even if they’re rich.
In any event, we’re guessing here that after we get through another period of voter fraud, destructive riots, and asininely fake news reporting by outlets that already claim that they won’t “allow” Trump to declare victory tonight, we’ll end up with a surprising second term for the incumbent.
And then, like everything else these days, we’ll just have to deal with the aftermath of a stunning Trump victory. That will be tough for the hard core leftists who boosted the increasingly senile Biden as the perfect stalking horse for the hard-left Politburo that intends to rule in his stead. And perhaps even depose him via the 25th Amendment, to legitimize a finally successful and unconstitutional coup. That would have been the final stop for a Biden win.
If this scenario actually ends up transpiring, however, we think that today’s whopping rally will quickly fade. It may drift along as a once fond memory of how things might have been if only. If only a few more voters had been able to see through the worst electoral fun and games and dirty tricks. The kind we’ve seen from time to time since the genuinely weird election of 1876.
We’re letting our somewhat reduced portfolio ride today. But we’re keeping an eye on what happens after the polls close tonight. That’s because the Wild Rumpus has likely just begun. So Mr Market ain’t seen nothin’ yet.
As of 12:30 p.m. ET, all three major market averages are up over 2% each. That’s a number that’s approaching irrational exuberance. But most investors won’t care after the hideous drubbing they endured last week. We’ll just have to wait, however, to see how things close at 4 p.m. And remember: there’s no guarantee where the averages will go tomorrow, depending on what happens during the incoming 24/7 multi-day news and disinformation cycle.
–Headline image: A vision of Election 2020 results? A Trump victory? A Biden horror show?
Parody image based on screen grab of “Ghostbusters” scene by T Ponick. Fair use.