WASHINGTON, December 7, 2017: This column’s devoted cadre of regular readers has undoubtedly noticed we’ve been playing hooky for the last week or two. That’s mainly been due to the stock market’s unusual case of late-year malaise. Yet this week, neither the latest fake Russian scandals, the U.S. recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s official capital, nor this morning’s unsurprising Thursday resignation of soon-to-be-former Minnesota Senator Al “Funny Guy” Franken has derailed most stocks from going up, up, up.
What’s a rational investor to do?
On the plus side:
- Mirabile dictu, President Trump and the usually Stupid Party – the GOP – actually got tax-cut, tax-code revision legislation through an almost dead-even Congress.
- The sham Trump-Russia Collusion prosecution team has been exposed yet again for the political hatchet job it always was, as a close former FBI associate of Robert Mueller was sacked – last summer – for blatant anti-Trump activities and emails, plus the usual “affair” that government higher ups like to conduct with female subordinates.
- That cloddish, incompetent, never funny, ex-SNL writer and “comic” – Democrat Al Franken – has just resigned from the U.S. Senate for conducting his own personal War on Women, as we’ve already noted.
- The Supreme Court has, for what, the third time, ruled against the idiotic 4th and 9th District Courts allowing President Trump’s 100 percent Constitutional immigration rules to take effect. Q3 corporate profits have generally increased yet again.
- In perhaps the biggest political joke of the year, the dumb-as-a-stone, Democrat-led anti-Trump “Resistance” in the House put a laughable impeachment proposal up for a vote in the lower chamber and watched it go down to a resounding defeat as even Democrats overwhelmingly voted against it, along with a few RINO Never-Trumpers.
We could go on, but all this and more was, in its own way, good news for all Americans who want real jobs, lower taxes and about 2 million fewer Federal employees and regulations.
On the negative side:
- The Jerusalem-Israeli capital thing, which Congress actually voted in favor of during Bill Clinton’s term in office (and which Clinton allowed to pass without his signature), was finally declared a reality by Donald Trump who kept yet another one of his campaign promises (imagine that!) even as America’s Reform Jews denounced it before they didn’t. This issue has remained beyond weird for decades, and Trump finally got things off dead center, sending a strong message to the “Palestinian government’s” murderous recidivists. Unfortunately, there will be a political price to be paid for this, particularly abroad. We would expect some violent blowback on this to take place on or near Christmas, with negative effects on American lives and U.S. stocks.
- We joyfully wish Minnesota’s wealthy, Democrat-Socialist Senator Al Franken a holiday good riddance. But we also realize that Minnesota’s bizarre Democrat Governor, bizarre Mark Dayton, will appoint yet another Democrat-Socialist to fill the Franken-seat in a zero-sum political game. Whenever Franken’s now-former seat comes up for an official election to permanently fill it, look for the state’s socialist apparatus to steal that election if it’s close, just as they did for Franken when he won his initial term. No learning for Minnesota’s dull-edged voters.
- Should he win Alabama’s special election next Tuesday – as he is increasingly likely to do – look for the Stupid Party to immediately undertake attempts to authorize that state’s new Senator-elect Moore, even though the put-up cases by Moore’s paid-for detractors have consistently gone up in smoke. No learning for the Stupid Party. Ever.
- We could go on with this side of the argument, too. But it all gets boring after a while.
The bottom line on all this politicking is this: The market, like everything, is all about politics these days. Trump is still in the White House, he’s actually begun to drain the Swamp, but he has a long way to go, assuming he survives his term, at least to COB January 19, 2021.
As long as the President keeps (mostly) getting his way and replacing the socialist-legislators that Obama consistently packed into the judiciary during his ruinous 8 year jihad against all Americans, and as long as he keeps wiping out scores and even hundreds of idiotic and enterprise-damaging Federal government “rules,” he will continue to succeed.
In turn, markets will remain happy as happy can be, for the most part.
The risks ahead in December:
- The usual government shutdown effort by the Democrats. The Evil Party, historically, has managed to pin these shutdowns and threats of shutdowns on Republicans time and time again. There’s no reason to believe that another shutdown, should it occur, won’t be (incorrectly) blamed on the GOP yet again. Except that our current President is Donald Trump, who may yet figure a way out of this predictable political trap. In the meantime, however, this nonsense will roil the stock market and not in a good way.
- Ditto for the still mythical joint Congressional resolution that House and Senate Republicans must agree upon before they send the tax reform legislation, in whatever form, to the President for his signature. The GOP has almost won this important round. Currently, the measure may very well carry a repeal of the Obamacare mandate as well, which is actually organic to over all tax reform to begin with. But again, there’s always the clear and present danger that the GOP Senate will once again snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Should this negative outcome actually occur, look out for the Mother of all Crashes.
For that reason, it’s probably best to take a defensive market posture, at least for now. A real Santa Claus Rally to close out 2017 remains a very iffy possibility. But if it happens, it will happen late and it will be a doozy.