WASHINGTON, June 10, 2015 – Trading the stock market these days feels a lot like jumping up and down on a trampoline. After several days of severe downside punishment, Mr. Market decided to do a 180 Wednesday, with all three major averages moving up impressively. As of just after the noon hour today, the Dow is up 255 points, the broadly-based S&P 500 is up nearly 27, and the tech-heavy NASDAQ is up a whopping 47.75 points, approaching a 1.5 percent gain on the day.
After all the recent gloom and doom, bulls returned to this rapidly declining market with a vengeance, with massive high-frequency trade (HFT) likely behind the move. HFTs don’t really care about what anything is worth. They simply buy and sell in massive quantity based on headline and rumor. And today’s headline/rumor is that Germany has offered Communist Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras German
bribes aid in return for the Greek offer of one eensy-weensy as-yet-unnamed economic reform.
As of this writing, that news has yet to be confirmed. But in this era of the Twitterverse and Rapid Response Teams, a rumor is all you need to get those machine trades humming in the appropriate direction; and right now, humming away they are.
Moving right along, oil is up nicely, too, today, after another series of big, abrupt declines, boosting energy and related stocks, even as the EPA plots energetically behind the scenes to put them all out of business.
On the other hand, yields on bonds increased once again today as the bond
ghouls vigilantes apparently have decided to do the Federal Reserve Bank’s job for them, goosing those rates up well before the rumored but not confirmed official September rate hike that’s increasingly getting baked-in to bond prices, which, of course, move in the opposite direction of yield.
June’s continuing and nasty bond action, however, seems as if it’s being completely ignored today, so what the heck. We’ll enjoy taking a breather from this already-too-long bear picnic and have fun on the upside, even as we remain deeply suspicious that we’re finally getting out of 2015’s meat-grinder trading range on the upside.
No trading tips today. Pretty much every decisive move you make in this market is the wrong one, no matter how many years and how many tears you’ve put into this business.
But the Maven does have a warning. If you buy on a day like today, you’ll likely lose on the trade by Friday, the way things have been going lately. As the old saying goes, “The trend is your friend.” But in this market we have no friends, so there is no trend to befriend, heaven forfend.
So maybe you and the Maven should both use today’s lovely, exciting but very suspicious oversold bounce as a chance to lighten up. We suspect the bears will be back for a snack soon enough. And besides, Mrs. Maven wants the already overburdened Maven to finish re-waterproofing the deck, and it’s finally not raining today, so what can he say?