WASHINGTON – It’s Monday again, and we’re back in the DC Swamp after our excellent, nearly weeklong visit with friends up in Ohio. US markets have remained generally positive today as we begin this trading week. Unlike the lefty trolls out there, who have steadily lobbed death wishes at our duly elected but currently coronavirus-plagued president. But President Trump’s latest buoyant tweet and successive news reports Monday afternoon, circa 2:30-3 p.m. ET, kicked market averages up more than a notch, adding to today’s somewhat surprising rally. Right on cue, Monday Markets broke into outright rejoicing. If not a low-key case of irrational exuberance.
Here’s that positive tweet from the Prez:
I will be leaving the great Walter Reed Medical Center today at 6:30 P.M. Feeling really good! Don’t be afraid of Covid. Don’t let it dominate your life. We have developed, under the Trump Administration, some really great drugs & knowledge. I feel better than I did 20 years ago!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 5, 2020
Monday Markets: Feel the love?
CNBC tells us what happened next.
“U.S. stocks climbed Monday after President Donald Trump said he will be discharged from the hospital this evening, easing concerns about more political uncertainty ahead of Election Day
“Stocks jumped to their session highs after Trump said in an afternoon tweet that he will be leaving Walter Reed National Military Medical Center at 6:30 p.m. ET, just three days after he entered the hospital to be treated for coronavirus.
“The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 450 points, or 1.6%. The S&P 500 also rose 1.7%, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 2.2%.”
This bit of extra positive tonic was all Mr Market needed to roll out the party wagon. It’s also an indication that President Trump isn’t 14 points behind Slow Joe Biden as today’s NBC-Wall Street Journal poll claims.
Polls? They’re up to no good again. But Monday markets don’t seem to care
The usual pollster suspects, of course, have had the president trailing Biden since the Obama administration left office in 2016. Like they did with Her Hillary-ness. But the Tylers over at ZeroHedge have the NBC-WSJ pollsters’ number, proving we’re dealing with an outlier here. One that Monday Markets actually ended up ignoring in the end.
“A new Wall Street Journal / NBC News poll released on Sunday gave former Vice President Joe Biden a 14-point lead over President Trump, suggesting that ‘the debate – is having a material effect on Mr. Trump’s political standing.’
“Another factor having a ‘material effect’ is the poll’s egregious oversampling of Democrats – with 45% of those asked identifying as either “Strong Democrat” , ‘Not very strong Democrat,’ ‘Independent/lean Democrat’ – vs. the 36% of those asked identifying as the same degrees of Republican.
“13% of those asked are ‘Strictly Independent.’
“Last month, the same poll ‘only’ oversampled Democrats by +3, which The Journal uses to illustrate Biden’s lead ‘jumping’ from an 8-point advantage last month.
Your favorite poll is probably designed to generate confirmation bias
This morning, we read a few reports indicating the market’s early rise was due to growing optimism that Joe Biden would serve as the nation’s next
figurehead president. Now the tune has changed, and Mr Market’s excitement is due to the impending return of The Donald to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
In a way, this is great. That’s because today, both sides got to indulge in confirmation bias.
That said, we lean in favor of option #2. I.e., it’s Laetare Alleluia time for the legions of silent but certain Trumpsters who are holding their fire to vote on the actual day of the election. Trump is back (sort of) even though the White House staff is dropping like flies from Covid-19. Does anyone find it weird that only Republicans are coming down with the bug? Too bad I don’t have the budget – or the inside contacts – to run this potential story down.
At any rate, traders and investors seemed happy today to bid stocks back up, with nearly all sectors finding themselves in the green as we approach the 4 p.m. closing bell.
So, after the presidential coronavirus scare, what’s next?
Tomorrow is another day, of course. But with the indefatigable Donald Trump heading back to the White House and likely to get back to normal over the next few days, we’ll no doubt be getting back to headline risk and subsequent market turmoil soon.
Next, we’ll need to endure the VP debate, scheduled for Tuesday evening as I recall. Mike Pence vs. Kamala Harris. This one, we’d imagine, will be somewhat more sedate than last week’s Trump vs Biden – Trump vs Chris Wallace tag team event. As to whether we’ll actually see a second Trump vs Biden etc. debate… well, Slow Joe says that will be up to “science.” We hope that science is not of the “settled science” of the
global warming climate change variety. Should Pence trounce the nasty Harris the way she deserves, the action we saw today in Monday markets could carry along through Wednesday. Which still leaves Tuesday in doubt, however.
Markets will continue to swing through the news and fake-news treetops for the next month or so. This will make investing interesting. But treacherous. Let’s all be careful here. And I’d advise the camps on both sides of the aisle not to believe a damned thing they read. It’s going to be all-spin, all the time. And, given the left-wing’s chicanery, re: mail-in ballots and clearly illegal ballot “harvesting,” it’s likely not to be over even by the early a.m. on November 4.
– Headline image: Cartoon by Branco. Reproduced with permission and by arrangement with Comically Incorrect. Modified slightly to fit CDN’s format.