Great Trump Rally II? US stocks are generally ignoring The Revolution
WASHINGTON – Ignoring the Antifa Revolution, the Great Trump Rally II erupted anew last week. Stocks blasted off again Monday, apparently brushing aside Antifa’s violent Marxist insurrection altogether. We are getting a bit of a correction Tuesday, but that’s to be expected, given the market’s unprecedented, ongoing rally. In general, Mr Market has been providing investors with pretty good news lately. Though you’ll never hear this on Commie Cable TV networks like CNN and MSNBC. “Accentuate the negative” has always been their favorite song during the Trump administration’s tenure in The Swamp.
Antifa’s wanton destruction was preplanned, not spontaneous
Meanwhile, out on the streets of America, Antifa’s violent Marxist fascists cleverly piggybacked their anti-American destruction derby on top of all those ongoing, reportedly peaceful George Floyd protests. They apparently arranged a pro-forma revolutionary disruption well in advance. They put plans in place some time ago to place cells of masked, riot-trained hoodlums in nearly every meaningful American city. In advance. All they needed to activate the cells was a catalyst for their pre-planned Revolution. And they finally got it by taking advantage of the perfect trigger incident. That random pretext occurred in another drippingly leftist American city, Minneapolis, MN. A city that’s run by a Boy Blunder of a mayor, aided and abetted by a majority Commie city council.
So, with the country still reeling from the Wuhan coronavirus tragedy and already cowed by endless but needless lockdowns, Antifa had the perfect storm at its back. And no one to stand in its way. Because Black Lives Matter. (Other lives do not. But don’t say that on TV or you’ll get canceled. Literally.)
Clearly Antifa’s masked clowns intend to continue their fascistic destruction of low-rent apartments and struggling small businesses indefinitely. Undoubtedly, they intend to help America’s post-coronavirus recovery along by putting hundreds or torched, minority-owned small businesses permanently out of work. But these mostly white criminals are already failing. Problem is, they’ve actually gone way over the top. But they still don’t see that yet.
Back on Wall Street, “Damn the torpedoes and full speed ahead!”
Elsewhere, Wall Street is already looking way past this destructive crap. Right or not, traders and investors are already seeing a V-shaped recovery looming. It’s likely going to begin in Q3 2020. Apparently, traders and investors mentally accept that Q2 2020 earnings will reflect the Wuhan coronavirus horrors. But they seem prepared to look beyond the mess as America slowly gets back to work.
All three averages skyrocketed again Monday, although Tuesday thus far finds stocks getting nicked a bit. Profit-taking seems to be the reason, save in the tech-heavy NASDAQ. It persists in continuing its dizzying, stratospheric climb. The Dow is currently off a mere 0.76% on the day, with 45 minutes to go until the closing bell. The S&P 500 is off a bit less than 0.5%. Stocks are pretty much down across the board as investors (including this writer) book a few profits here and there while, hopefully, allowing the remainder of their portfolios to keep rising.
Although Tuesday (and maybe even the rest of this week) seems to be providing a respite from investors’ persistant bullishness, recovery fever is still in the air. And the Great Trump Rally II is still in session.
Even the recently and notoriously bearish Stanley Druckenmiller, chairman and CEO of the Duquesne Family Office, finally threw in the towel Monday. According to the intrepid Tylers of ZeroHedge, he confessed his short-side mistake to CNBC’s talking heads. (Bold and italic text via ZH).
“Stanley Druckenmiller took to CNBC Monday morning to admit that he ‘underestimated’ the power of the Federal Reserve and that he had been “humbled” by the market’s V-shaped recovery.
(Comment: As old Marty Zweig often said to investors, “Don’t fight the Fed.”)
More from Stanley Druckenmiller
“Of course, what he meant is the Federal Reserve’s ‘power’ to completely and totally rig markets, but, nonetheless, the longtime hedge fund manager offered up a mea culpa of sorts – seemingly surrendering any concerns he had about monetary policy as unwarranted.
“‘Well I’ve been humbled many times in my career, and I’m sure I’ll be many times in the future. And the last three weeks certainly fits that category,’ he said…
“‘I had long-term concerns for the last few years that because of easy money, too much debt was being built up in the corporate sector. When Covid hit, I was pretty much of the view that there was a good chance that the credit bubble had finally burst and the unwinding of that leverage would take years.’
“‘The risk-reward for equity is maybe as bad as I’ve seen it in my career,’ Druckenmiller said back in May.
“The Fed promptly made a fool of Druckenmiller, as stocks rallied more than 11% since those comments. The Fed also seemed to demoralize Druckenmiller, who admitted Monday morning he had been ‘far too cautious’ about things.
Reassessing the Gloom and Doom scenario
“‘I would say since that time, a couple things have happened technically. I would also say I underestimated how many red lines, and how far, the Fed would go.’
“‘I’ve been far too cautious. I was up 2% the day of the bottom and I’ve made all of 3% during the [market’s] 40% rally.’
“‘What is clearly happening is the excitement of reopening is allowing a lot of these companies that have been casualties of Covid to come back and come back in force. With a combination of the Fed money and, in particular, a vaccine where the news has been very, very good,’ Druckenmiller concluded.”
That’s a pretty candid batch of details for a bigwig investor. But it gives him an extra measure of street cred. Most Wall Street heavy sluggers rarely detail their bonehead market decisions. They prefer to radiate invincibility.
The sunnier side of the Street
Looking more to the sunny side of the Street, another investment guru offered CNBC a brighter, but still realistic opinion on what no one but me, alas, is calling the Great Trump Rally II.
“‘It appears that the most rapid bear market in history has been followed by the most dramatic recovery in history,’ wrote Marc Chaikin, CEO of Chaikin Analytics. ‘While COVID-19 cases are still growing in certain states, particularly outside of densely populated urban areas, investors see the glass as half-full and are looking ahead 12-18 months.’
“Stocks that benefit the most from the economy reopening have led the charge higher for the broader market.
“JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup are both up more than 23% quarter to date while Hilton Worldwide is up 27.8%. American Airlines shares are up 52.5% in that time while Delta and United have gained 19.7% and 34.4%, respectively.
“Investors will be concentrating on the Federal Reserve’s statement on interest rates Wednesday and a press conference from Chairman Jerome Powell. The Fed is expected to reiterate its commitment to unlimited asset purchases to keep markets functioning.”
About those “peaceful protests”: They’re not if Antifa gets involved
It’s significant that neither of these money gurus even mentioned the ongoing riots / “peaceful protests.” Whatever their original cause, Antifa’s latest, Soros-fueled attempt at The Revolution look at this stage like an epic fail. More likely, this predictably senseless violence, disguised as something else, has cost the increasingly radicalized Democrats more and more votes. This negates any PR stumbles a beleaguered President Trump may have made over recent weeks.
The fact is, the Great Trump Rally II is right here in front of us, no matter how much this might horrify America’s arrogant socialists. They seem to regard Trump himself as Colin Clive portraying Dr. Frankenstein in that memorable 1931 movie scene when the monster comes to life. A hysterical Clive exults, “It’s alive. It’s aliiiiive!!!” Despite their violent antics, Trump’s bullish economic monster is still very much alive as well. Normal Americans see prosperity returning. Antifa sees only another horror movie.
Voting their pocketbooks
In the end, voters still tend to vote their pocketbooks. While no one knows how far the current Great Trump Rally II may continue, if it does, and if America continues to go back to work like the country seems to have done in May, Trump will begin to look like a miracle worker, even to those wussy undecided voters who can’t bring themselves to endorse him.
Results matter. And if voters see that President Trump has turned America’s Failure Freight Train around completely by November, the current polls that claim Biden will turn him into roadkill will prove just as valid as the 2016 polls that gave Her Hillariness a 95% chance of stomping The Donald. Maybe that’s what recent Wall Street numbers have also been trying to tell us.
On the other hand, I was expecting some sort of pullback today, after last week’s violent upside action. But we got the pullback Tuesday. So I was a day off. The Great Trump Rally II will be back soon enough.
Knowing when to hold them and knowing when to fold them
Frankly, you can’t have a meaningful stock market recovery without a few nasty downside bumps on the way. Monday, no one was thinking about that. Today, they are.
And finally, my parting advice to Antifa: Quit while you’re behind. Or find yourselves getting further behind.
– Headline image: Colin Clive as Dr. Frankenstein in the original 1931 “Frankenstein” film. “It’s alive!!!” Just like the Great Trump Rally II, that’s horrifying Antifa’s anti-American thugs. Screen capture, YouTube video.