2016 Presidential race crystal ball – Hillary won’t, Romney and Warren will

2016 Presidential race crystal ball – Hillary won’t, Romney and Warren will

Mitt Romney, Hillary Clinton, Elizabeth Warren
Mitt Romney, Hillary Clinton, Elizabeth Warren

NASHVILLE, September 16, 2014 – There was a time in America when the Presidential races did not begin until after the midterm election. No longer.

Today, three minutes and seventeen seconds after the end of the loser’s concession speech, the race is on. There is much in the way of conventional wisdom about what will happen in 2016.   The nice thing about conventional wisdom is that so much of it is wrong.

The conventional wisdom is that Hillary Clinton is going to be the Democrat nominee for 2016. The Democrat Party, at least in this instance, has shown itself to be smarter than the Republican Party. The Democrats at least don’t nominate someone because it is their turn. Since 1988, every Republican nominee has been pushed to the front because it was their turn.

In 96, it was Robert Dole’s turn. In 2000, it was the Bushes turn. In 2008, it was John McCain’s turn and in 2012 it was Mitt Romney’s turn. If the Republican Establishment has its way, it will be Romney’s turn again in 2016.

Other than 1984 and 2000, the Democrats haven’t played that game.

Contrary to the popular belief, Hillary Clinton will not be the nominee. There is a decent chance, despite her campaign forays into Iowa recently, she won’t even run.

Who will be the Democrat nominee in 2016?

Just wait.

It won’t be Clinton.

Assuming she doesn’t cite health concerns as a reason for not running, she has huge problems. Her abortive book tour was supposed to be a warm up for the campaign. It was a disaster and it showed both Clinton and her team are extremely rusty campaigners.

By 2016, it will be 16 years since the Clinton’s left the White House. There is a whole generation of Democrat voters that have come up that only have a vague memory of the Clinton years.

In that 16 years, a whole new generation of Democrat voters and Democrat candidates has grown up. They see Clinton has a person whose time has past. They see her as someone who had her shot and now needs to move out of the way to allow the new generation of Democrats to take over.

Clinton has another strike against her. She will be 69 if she runs in 2016. Rush Limbaugh was excoriated for pointing out a cold hard truth. Older women are not treated as kindly in politics as older men.

So who will be the Democrat nominee in 2016?

Elizabeth Warren.

She checks all of the boxes. She is a woman so Democrats won’t feel guilty about voting for the white men (Joe Biden and Martin O’Malley) who are running. She is as far to the left as Barack Obama and more importantly she has the support of the Obama Machine.

The worst kept secret in Washington is how much the Obamas and the Clintons despise each other. The last thing Barack Obama wants to do is hand over his legacy to a Clinton. He would rather see a Republican win than a Clinton. His entire organization, which is in better shape and is better funded than the Clinton machine, will be at Warren’s disposal.

While Warren is very far to the left, she is a competent campaigner. She is a better politician than Hillary is.

The real question now is not if Hillary will leave the public stage but which sunset she will ride off in to.

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Judson Phillips
Judson Phillips is the founder of Tea Party Nation, one of the largest Tea Party Groups in the country and the number one national tea party site on the Internet. A lawyer by profession, Judson has been involved in politics since his teens. “Ronald Reagan inspired me,” he says. Judson became involved in the Tea Party movement in February 2009 after hearing Rick Santelli’s rant on CNBC. “I heard there was going to be a Tea Party in Chicago inspired by Santelli, but didn’t know if anyone was doing a rally in Nashville where I was based. Finally I emailed Michelle Malkin and asked her if there was a Tea Party in Nashville. Malkin sent an email back saying, ‘No, why don’t you organize one?’ I did.” The first Tea Party in Nashville was held late February 2009 which drew a crowd of about 600. Judson then organized the Tax Day Tea Party in Nashville, which drew over 10,000 people into downtown. It was at this time that Tea Party Nation was formed. Later that year, Judson decided to bring activists from across the country together, so he organized the first National Tea Party Convention in February 2010, which featured Alaska’s former Governor and Republican Vice Presidential Nominee, Sarah Palin as it’s keynote speaker. He currently manages the Tea Party Nation website, writes several daily columns and is working on more projects than any one person should. He is a frequent guest on cable and broadcast news shows, including on Fox, MSNBC, CNN and others.